The NFL draft in 2021 starts in nine days, and there are five exciting quarterback prospects who look like they will go early in the first round. However, history tells us that only two out of five will make it to the NFL.
Yes, that’s right. This is my being that guy – the man who drops reality into the fist of excitement. As the round approaches 1 centimeter, the expectation rises. Every fan of every team sees the concept as salvation – the annual event that will turn their sad franchise around, or deliver the final piece of which you are sure their good / good team will become a champion.
While this is all part of the fun, it’s not really what’s going to happen. Or at least it’s not what usually happen. History tells us that a choice from the first round is statistically unlikely to make a second contract with your favorite team. And if your team plays a quarterback, history tells us he only has a 42.2% chance of winning the second contract.
“Oh yes?” you ask. “What history is this exactly?” – and I’ll tell you. Thanks to bait researcher Paul Hembekides and the numbers of crippling people at ESPN Stats & Information, we have data on every first player from 2000 to 2016 – all 540 – and whether they reached a second contract with the team that drafted it. Overall, 232 of the 540 were re-signed by the team they drafted at the end of their rookie contracts. That’s right – about 43%. This is the first round, mind you, not the whole concept. This is the most important round, the round that gets the glory. And even in this round, the data says that teams will pass less than 50%.
Pretty rough reality check, no?
“There are a lot of things you can not control,” said one NFC front office manager who preferred not to be identified. nobody wants to be caught this time of year on the concept. ‘You put 20-year-olds in money they’ve never seen before, and that automatically leads to distractions from what they’ve brought to the point. Of course there is injury. There are changes in the system. I mean, some quarterbacks never get a fair chance. You change systems, change buses, sometimes two or three times during the rookie contract, and you have to see it more as an organizational failure than as a failure of the prospect itself. ‘
Fair point, if we look at the case of the Jets. Three years ago, they traded in the draft from number 6 to number 3 to take on Sam Darnold. They fired coach Todd Bowles and general manager Mike MacCagnan after Darnold’s first year and coach Adam Gase after his third. They pick second place in this year’s draft and only swap Darnold for the Panthers because they decided to draft his replacement.
Darnold is not even in our ESPN Stats & Info study since he was drafted in 2018. These numbers only last until 2016, because it’s too soon to know for sure if all the guys lined up in 2017 or later will make the second. contracts. This is the season in which their fifth year options are decided. Fifteen of the 32 first-timers in the 2017 class are no longer in the teams they drafted, and Darnold is the second of five back-to-back players to be in the first round in 2018, which has already been swapped and replaced. The concepts do not tend to be much better than the 17 we looked at in this article.
When studying the 2000-’16 essay, we did find some differences based on position. Offensive lineouts are apparently the most likely choice in the first round to succeed. Of the 55 attacks taken in the first round of 2000-’16, 33 got second contracts with the teams that drafted them. This is 60%. Twelve of the 26 guards in the first round (46.2%) and all nine centers in the first round (100%) made it. Linebacker is also a relatively safe choice, as 54.8% (23 of 42) of those drafted were re-signed for second contracts. But man, it’s ugly after that.
Did you fuel all the wide receivers your team had available in the first round this year? Not so fast, my friend. Wide recipients were the lowest group in this study. Of the 70 receivers drafted from 2000 to 16, only 19 reached the second contracts with the team that drafted it. And that includes Odell Beckham Jr. and Tavon Austin in, who did not exactly become legendary Giants of Rams. For every Calvin Johnson there is a Kevin White. For every Julio Jones, an AJ Jenkins. That doesn’t mean your team has to pick a wide receiver early on – superstar extensions are extremely valuable after all – just that each choice is a relatively long shot.
The next worst position group in this study is defense pack (35.3%) and then cornerback (35.5%). Some of this can be attributed to the poor fit of the scheme.
“If you ask players to do exactly the same thing they did in college, they’s likely to do well,” said Mike Tannenbaum, former Jets and Dolphins GM (and current ESPN NFL analyst). “If you ask them to do something else, you bring in the strangers and the risk increases.”
Are there teams that were more successful than others in retaining their first round? Yes, but remember that this is only a sample of 17 years, and that teams usually choose one first round per year. With that said, the Cowboys signed a league high of 73.3% (11 of 15) from the first round of 2000-16 to second contracts. They are followed by the Panthers and Texans at 68.8% (both 11 of 16), the Eagles at 60% (9 of 15) and the Steelers at 58.82% (10 of 17).
At the bottom of the list are the Broncos and the Jaguars, who each picked 17 first rounds over that piece and signed only four to second contracts (23.5%). Others at the bottom are the Browns and Lions with 25% (5 out of 20 each) and the Cardinals and Bills at 27.8% (5 out of 18 each).
What about the quarterback? 45 were taken in the 17 drafts of 2000-16, and 19 of them (42.2%) received second contracts from the teams that drafted them. These include MVPs Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan and Cam Newton. These include Super Bowl champions Eli Manning, Joe Flacco and Ben Roethlisberger. But it also includes Jared Goff and Carson Wentz, the top two picks from 2016 drafts, who were swapped from the teams they drafted this season, before their second contracts even kicked in technically.
Does it matter how high they are chosen? Kind of. Nine of the twelve full-backs selected with the overall number one out of the drafts won second contracts with the teams that selected them. (Those who did not do so were JaMarcus Russell, Sam Bradford and Jameis Winston.) Only one out of three selected number 2 got one (Wentz). Only one of the four who are number 3 got one (Ryan). Philip Rivers, who in 2004 as no. 4 were selected, got one. This is 12 out of 19 overall. To a Roethlisberger on no. 11 or a Rodgers on no. 24 is basically like finding a gold ticket in your Wonka Bar.
1:06
Mina Kimes explains why she believes Trey Lance is the most exciting quarterback in the draft.
The problem is that there is so much going on about whether a quarterback in the NFL is successful. It’s about more than the player’s ability and mental composition. It often comes down to situation. What kind of team is being built around him? How much time does he need before he is ready to play, and how much time does he get? Who distracts him? How much more will he be asked of him than he was asked at the university, and how will he handle it?
“At university, you see guys look to the sidelines for every play of the coaching staff,” Tannenbaum said. “In the NFL, with 15 seconds left on the game clock, the communication between the coach and the quarterback is cut off. If you do not have the ability to get into the right game on your own, it is difficult to be a successful quarterback. in the NFL. ‘
This whole thing is difficult. This is what too many people forget and everyone should remember on April 29 when Roger Goodell mentions names and fans hold parties or chairs, depending on whether they like the choice. It is not a matter of choosing and joining the right man. It’s a matter of choosing the right man, putting in the right structure to make sure it works and hoping nothing goes wrong to get it off course. Add it all up, and it’s easy to see why most first rounds do not make it. And why the first night of the draft is just the beginning of a long, involved process that will determine if it does happen.