SEOUL, South Korea (AP) – After North Korea gave the silent government of the Biden government for two months, North Korea rallied two powerful women to warn Washington about joint military exercises with South Korea and the diplomatic consequences of his ‘hostile’ policy towards Pyongyang.
However, the frustration and warfare can be an overture.
North Korea’s first comments to the new US government, though filled with angry rhetoric, can be seen as the beginning of a diplomatic back-and-forth as the North invades to return in captivated talks aimed at harnessing its nuclear weapons for much-needed economic benefits.
The timing of the North Korean declarations was carefully chosen, with the comments landing on front pages and news reports when US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin traveled to Asia for talks with the US allies Tokyo and Seoul on North Korean threat and other regional challenges.
Whether any negotiations can take place may depend on the Biden government’s policy review of North Korea, which is expected to be completed in the coming weeks.
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WHAT NORTH KOREA SS
Kim Jong Un, the powerful sister, on Tuesday regretted the latest military exercises between the US and South Korea, which would end a nine-day career on Thursday.
Kim Yo Jong described the exercises as an invasion exercise and warned Washington not to “cause a stink” if he “wants to sleep in peace” for the next four years.
North Korea’s first Deputy Foreign Minister Choe Sun Hui said in a statement on Thursday that the North would continue to ignore US offers for talks unless it renounced what the North described as hostile policies.
Choe is responding this week to Blinken’s remarks that Washington has been reaching out to the North since mid-February, but has not received a response.
“What has been heard from the U.S. since the emergence of the new regime is merely an insane theory of ‘threat from North Korea’ and baseless rhetoric about ‘complete deprivation,'” Choe said. ‘time- called delayed trick. ”
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WHAT PYONGYANG WANTS
Choe’s statement may be an attempt by the North to create an environment to re-establish nuclear negotiations from a strong position, according to Shin Beomchul, an analyst at the Korean Research Institute for Research in Korea.
Negotiations between Washington and Seoul have stalled for more than two years since the collapse of the nuclear summit between Kim Jong Un and former US President Donald Trump in 2019. The two parties did not agree on the details of a plan to ease sanctions for exchange disarmament. Pyongyang has repeatedly stated that he will not hold meaningful talks, while Washington persists in sanctions and pressure.
“It is clear that the North is trying to strengthen its bargaining power,” Shin said.
But North Korea may also be ready for tougher words for the Biden administration over Blinken’s repeated condemnation in Seoul of the North’s human rights record, something Trump largely ignored while pursuing media-friendly talks with Kim. This could complicate future negotiations
The North is extremely sensitive to outside criticism about its abhorrent human rights circumstances, which it sees as an attack on its leadership, and Choe’s statement appears to be before the North could decide on a response to Blinken’s remarks.
“There is likely to be serious opposition from the North” over Blinken’s remarks on human rights, said Park Won Gon, a professor of North Korean studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul.
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SPEAKING AND PRESSING
Most experts agree that the North will eventually try to return to negotiations to seek help, but they differ on when – and what it will take to start again.
Kim was recently defiant about promoting a nuclear arsenal he sees as his strongest guarantee of survival. He also encouraged his people to be resilient in the struggle for economic independence as he embarked on a new perennial plan to save his broken economy.
Kim’s focus on its local economic impetus could mean the North stays away from talks for another year and only returns after it becomes clear that Kim’s new policy is failing, Shin said.
“If North Korea is really desperate for a speedy resumption of talks, they will test an intercontinental ballistic missile around April 15,” said Kim Il Sung’s birthday party to put Washington under pressure, Shin said. said.
But he said it was more likely that the North would provoke the Biden administration – and invite more pressure – because Kim’s priority is to quietly cement his country as a nuclear power, which is also a key goal of his domestic economic impetus. .
The North could still try to launch short-range test launches that threaten South Korea, but not the US homeland. But Shin said: “they will at least take any dramatic action until the Biden government’s North Korean policy review is out.”
Kim has to navigate the difficult relationship with Washington, while his country faces sanctions, pandemic border closures and crop-killing natural disasters that could push the North towards worse economic instability.
Whatever moves the North, its recent messages indicate that it will not return to talks unless the United States offers at least some sanction relief. However, this is unlikely to happen without a significant cut in Kim’s core capabilities.