New Jersey’s top health official warned on Wednesday that the state is preparing for an ‘increase’ in hospitalizations due to the latest increase in coronavirus cases that could come next week and that could cause a new round of restrictions, especially with elective surgeries.
While hospitalizations for weeks remained between 3,500 and 3,900, well below the more than 8,000 peak in the spring, Judy Persichilli, department of health commissioner, said hospital officials were worried about the coming weeks due to available staff.
“We are preparing for the predictive boom that could begin as early as next week until mid-February,” Persichilli said Wednesday during the governor’s COVID-19 briefing.
“What we will not have is the appropriate level of staff that people know, conventional staff,” she said. “We will therefore work with our hospitals if they have to progress to what we call an emergency staff and hopefully never a crisis staff.”
Government Phil Murphy has warned that hospitalizations of more than 5,000 patients are likely to cause new restrictions, particularly with regard to elective surgeries, which include procedures such as tumor removal.
In the spring outbreak, New Jersey benefited from health workers from other parts of the country who arrived here to help treat patients. Now that the virus is raging across the country, health officials do not expect to be able to receive the same support – which could mean a shortage of workers to meet the high demand from patients.
There were 3,638 people treated in the 71 hospitals in the state Wednesday night, according to state data.
New Jersey, however, confirmed a one-day record of 6,922 new positive tests and another 95 deaths. The seven-day average for newly confirmed cases rose to 5,679 on Wednesday, up 22% from a week ago and 18% from a month ago. This is the highest average of seven days in the outbreak so far, although the lack of testing in the spring probably undercut the extent of the infections in the first wave.
The increase in hospitalization tends to follow one to two weeks after spikes in new cases, as the symptoms worsen and people seek advanced medical care, officials said.
Hospitalizations from 1/13/21
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“(We) are watching the number and this number like a hawk,” Murphy said Wednesday.
Moderate models for the outbreak predict a peak of 4,000 to 4,500 hospitalizations, while high-end models show more than 6,000, Persichilli said.
Persichilli says the tall model will be difficult to drive.
“At that point, we’re going to pull some levers that we’re not pulling at the moment,” Murphy added.
The state of 9 million residents now lost 20,161 residents during the COVID-19 outbreak – 18,070 confirmed deaths and 2,091 considered probable. The probable deaths were revised higher on Wednesday from 2,059. New Jersey has already announced 969 confirmed deaths this month after 1890 in December.
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Matt Arco can be reached at [email protected].