It’s official, we have our NFL ‘final four’. These are the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Green Bay Packers in the NFC Championship Game next weekend. As for the past weekend from a gambling perspective, books seemed to be heading off early on a horrible weekend. Both favorites on Saturday covered, but Sunday saw exactly the opposite, as both backlogs cover the spread. After the championship weekend, favorites are 4-6 in the playoffs.
If you are an experienced bettor, you know that it is best to set your bet early before the lines can experience the unfavorable move. We’ve seen a bit of movement since these lines were released shortly after the games came into being, so let’s take a look at this early chance and include our choice.
All NFL odds are through William Hill Sportsbook.
Buccaneers by Packers
Opening line: Packers -3.5
Total: O / U 51
Green Bay is hosting the NFC Championship Game for the first time since 2007, which was Brett Favre’s last game as Packer. The Packers had no problem with the Los Angeles Rams in the division round and defeated them 32-18. Aaron Rodgers and the offense tore the Rams’ top defense apart as they scored 484 yards total offense and 28 first-tackles. Both of these numbers were allowed by the Rams in a game most seasons. Davante Adams took nine passes for 66 yards and an attack, but it was actually Allen Lazard who was the leading receiver of the match. He got four passes for 96 yards, including a 58-yard touchdown that put the game on ice. While Green Bay’s defense kept Los Angeles up to just 244 yards from the total offense, the secondary time was sometimes mocking. Josh Reynolds, Robert Woods and Van Jefferson all managed to find an open spot around the corner from the Packers. This is something to keep an eye on.
Tom Brady and the Buccaneers did not get much production from their wide receivers against the New Orleans Saints in the division round, but they were still able to escape with a 30-20 victory. Brady threw for 199 yards and two touchdowns, while Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones combined for 125 yards on the ground. However, it was the defense that ruled the day as the Buccaneers kept Drew Brees at just 134 passing yards, selecting him three times and forcing four total turnover. Devin White proved to be one of the best linebackers in the league as he scored a team of 11 runs, recovered a foul and caught an interception, which he turned back 28 times. Brady was able to avoid playing Bears and the Saints 0-3 this season, and he further strengthened his place in NFL history. This will be Brady’s ninth conference championship in the last ten years, and his NFL record 14th overall in his 21-year NFL career. To put this in perspective, Brady has more conference championship wins than any other quarterback has played!
The choice: These two teams met in Week 6, when the Packers, 38-10, were knocked out in Tampa. It was Green Bay’s worst loss of the season. What’s interesting is that both the Packers game and the Buccaneers game scored exactly 50 points this past weekend. Give me the Over and I take the Packers to cover 3.5 points as well.
Bills by Chiefs
Opening line: Chiefs -3
Total: O / U 54
The last time the Bills and Chiefs met in the post-season was in the 1993 AFC Championship Game. The Bills won 30-13 en route to their fourth consecutive Super Bowl appearance. With the Chiefs’ 22-17 victory over the Cleveland Browns this Sunday, Kansas City will become the first team since the Philadelphia Eagles in 2002-04 to host three straight conference games. Andy Reid coached both of these teams! Chad Henne had to finish the match after Patrick Mahomes left due to a concussion, and he did play with some connections. Still, everyone hopes that Mahomes can do everything he can this week to adapt to the conference match. An interesting point to note that this game is being entered into is that the Chiefs have now played nine games in a row without winning more than six points. Since Week 9, they are 1-8 against the spread.
For the first time since 1993, the Bills are in the AFC Championship Game. They defeated the Baltimore Ravens in a low scoring ladder, and it was actually the defense that shone. Buffalo held Baltimore to just three points, and Taron Johnson’s 101-yard six was what Josh Allen called a “franchise-changing game.” The Bills have now drawn eight games, seven of them with double figures, and have a point differential of +136 during the period. However, Allen and Stefon Diggs will have to put together a great game if they want to take down this explosive Chiefs team.
The choice: These two teams also met in the regular season in Week 6 when the Chiefs defeated the Bills 26-17. Mahomes’ injury and how strange it was let me stop, but if you force me to choose a side now, I will continue to cover the Chiefs. I’ve been publishing a weekly NFL play system update since the playoffs, and my Packers Chiefs Super Bowl selection has not changed. As for the total, I lean towards the Under.