Gavin Newsom, governor of California, speaks at a news conference at a joint state and federal COVID-19 vaccination site set up on Tuesday, February 16, 2021 on the campus of California State University in Los Angeles, Los Angeles. AP Photo / Jae C. Hong
OAKLAND, Calif. – According to an official update Friday, the campaign to recall California Government Gavin Newsom has ratified nearly 670,000 signatures with a month left to reach about 1.5 million, but the total number of valid signatures submitted is, is probably larger.
It’s a tight finish for the ride to only recall the second government in California. Long ballot experts say the campaign still needs to submit an impressive signature validation rate, but that it could still come down to the thread on Friday’s data release.
An update from the Foreign Secretary’s office shows 668,202 valid signatures to date, equivalent to a relatively high validity rate of 84 percent of the 798,310 signatures checked by local election offices up to early February.
Officials have not yet processed an additional 300,000 ballots, which at the reported rate of validity would put the organizers at about 900,000 signatures – about 60 percent of the total required.
Anne Dunsmore, who runs one of the two groups leading the recall, said the report lags behind the actual course of the campaign. Dunsmore said proponents submitted about 1.2 million signatures and collected about 1.7 million.
“We are doing well,” Dunsmore said. “We’re ready to go.”
But campaign consultant Brandon Castillo, who is not involved in the recall, predicted the outcome would be severe. He said it would depend on how many signatures the campaign received, more than the 1.09 million that registrars officially received, assuming that their submission rate in the next month roughly corresponds to the raw total of the campaign from early January to in early February.
“I think it’s very close. I think it’s seriously possible that they are eligible. But only if they still have 400,000 to 500,000 signatures in hand,” Castillo said.
The last official update, in January, showed that proponents had submitted about 410,000 valid signatures and probably collected about 610,000 valid signatures.
A growing consensus that the recall could still take place before voters drew national attention and money, with the Republican National Committee channeling $ 250,000 to get the signature across the finish line. Republican rivals stand in line, and Democrats unite behind Newsom.
A halt to mass vaccination efforts and the continued closure of schools has fueled criticism of Newsom’s leadership.
The next official status report is scheduled for March 18 – the day after the deadline for proponents to submit signatures. Election officials will then have to submit results to the foreign minister, who will announce whether the recall has made the vote.
If that happens, an election is likely to take place in the fall. Voters would decide on two questions: whether Newsom should stay in office, and who should replace him if the recall passes.