EARS-CoV-2 has shown the world with devastating clarity the threat that undetected viruses can pose to global public health. SpillOver, a new web application developed by scientists at the University of California, Davis, and contributed by experts from around the world, poses the risk of wasting game to humans for newly discovered viruses.
SpillOver is the first open source risk assessment resource that evaluates wildlife viruses to estimate their zoonotic distribution and potential for pandemics. It effectively creates a watch list of newly discovered viruses to help policymakers and health scientists prioritize them for further characterization, surveillance, and risk-reducing interventions.
The tool is linked to a study published in the journal PNAS, in which the authors identified the most relevant virus, host and environmental risk factors for virus spread. The team then ranked the risk of 887 wild-type viruses using data collected from various sources, including viruses detected by the USAID Emerging Pandemic Threats PREDICT project, which led UC Davis’ One Health Institute from 2009 to 2020.
Primate and livestock explore the site outside a house in Ghana. Credit: Terra Kelly, UC Davis
Coronaviruses are high
At the top of the list were 12 known human pathogens, which were expected to confirm the usefulness of the instrument. Interestingly, SpillOver considered several newly discovered coronaviruses to be at a higher risk of spread than some viruses that are already zoonotic. This watchlist contains a new coronavirus with provisional name PREDICT_CoV-35, which is ranked among the top 20.
The power of the tool lies in the fact that it is open source – the more data is entered, the more robust the ranking is. SARS CoV-2 currently ranks second among the 887 viruses analyzed, among Lassa and Ebola viruses.
This may seem counter-intuitive, the authors say, given the current global devastation of the pandemic. They explain that the instrument arranges the potential for another flood than has historically happened. In addition, important information remains undiscovered about SARS CoV-2 and the spread risk, such as the number and extent of its host species. As scientists learn more about this virus, it is possible that SARS CoV-2 will move to number 1.
“SARS-CoV-2 is just one example of thousands of viruses that have the potential to transmit from animals to humans,” said lead author Zoë Grange, who led the development of SpillOver as a postdoctoral researcher at UC Davis One . Health Institute. ‘We must not only identify viral threats with the greatest spread risk, but also prioritize them before another devastating pandemic occurs. Our SpillOver Viral Risk Ranking tool is the starting point for building proactive solutions. ”
Credit score virus
SpillOver is inspired by risk assessments used by banks and insurance companies. It creates a “credit-like” score for viruses by looking at key risk factors and using them to prioritize the viruses that pose the greatest potential threats to human health for a watchlist. Users can customize the watchlist according to their own circumstances, such as the country of interest.
Previous virus ranking tools are limited to the number or types of viruses analyzed, taking into account minimal risk factors. SpillOver considers 32 risk factors for the virus and its hosts, including associated environment and human behavior. It also contains 25 different viral families, from coronaviruses to the viral family that causes Ebola viruses.
Sort your virus
SpillOver provides a detailed risk report for each virus, and the Risk Comparison tool enables users to compare and contrast ranked viruses, as well as filter viruses on a selection of key features including virus species, host species and country of detection .
As an open source resource, SpillOver provides a vibrant platform for ongoing ranking of the distribution risk. Scientists can contribute data to existing viruses or assess the risk of new viruses using the ‘Rank Your Virus’ application.
“This tool is intended to launch a global conversation that will enable us to go much further than we thought in the past about arranging viruses, and to allow real-time scientific collaboration to anticipate new threats early on. to identify, “said Jonna Mazet, a professor at the UC Davis School of Veterinary Medicine, founding director of the One Health Institute and former global director of PREDICT. “SpillOver can help advance our understanding of viral health threats and enable us to reduce the risk of spillage before pandemics catch fire.”
SpillOver involves and enables scientists who discover viruses to work together in a One Health framework that is not only focused on viral traits, but also on all the conditions in high-risk areas for the emergence of diseases. This enables the tool to be a catalyst for the rapid identification and arrangement of newly discovered viruses and their transmission interfaces between animals and humans.
This paradigm shift can facilitate early cooperation, across disciplinary and national boundaries. The identification and ranking of viruses for human health risks can help scientists identify critical control points and address human behaviors that put humans and animals at risk for new viral infections.
Reference: April 5, 2021, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
DOI: 10.1073 / pnas.2002324118
The co-authors of the study include hundreds of individuals who have supported the PREDICT project in their countries and home institutions, as well as global scientific leaders in viral emergence and the collaborating core institutions, including the Wildlife Conservation Society, EcoHealth Alliance, Metabiota, Smithsonian Conservation Biology . Institute, Columbia University‘s center for infection and immunity.
Funding support for the study was provided by the USAID Emerging Threats Project.