The emergence of more contagious variants of the coronavirus threatens an encouraging trend of declining COVID-19 cases across the country.
New U.S. cases of COVID-19 fell below 100,000 on Sunday for the first time since November, a hopeful sign of a brutal post-Thanksgiving period in which cases, hospitalizations and deaths are on the rise.
Health officials are appealing to the public and governors not to soften the precautions despite the somewhat improved situation, as measures such as wearing a mask and removing others are even more important if the virus is more contagious.
Although the trend is going in a positive direction, the levels of cases, hospitalizations and deaths are still much higher than one of the previous peaks in the spring and summer of last year.
According to the COVID Tracking Project, there were 96,000 new cases on Sunday, peaking at nearly 300,000 in early January. But it is still far above any level that experts would consider a goal. For example, it is still higher than the highest number of cases during the summer, which was about 75,000 cases per day.
About 3,000 people die every day from the virus, and about 80,000 are hospitalized with COVID-19.
However, the positive trend has prompted some governors to start easing restrictions.
In Iowa, government Kim Reynolds (R) last week lifted the mask mandate and removed restrictions on restaurants and bars.
While this may be the most drastic step, other states have gradually taken steps to return. Government Andrew CuomoAndrew Cuomo Republican 2024 hopefuls draw early battle lines for post-Trump era Cuomo signs bill to repeal ‘walk while trans-law’, NY Republicans want the Department of Justice to sue Cuomo over nursing homes MORE (D) announced that indoor dining with a 25 percent capacity in New York City could return before Valentine’s Day.
Asked about Iowa’s decision, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Director Rochelle WalenskyRochelle WalenskyCDC could lay out reopening requirements for schools this week, says Biden’s governor in Maine against Super Bowl parties. The Republicans want to beat the Democrats MORE with the reopening of the school. on Monday urged the states not to take precautions, in part with reference to the emergence of new variants of the virus.
“We still have this emerging threat of variants, and I will only discourage any of these activities,” she said. “We really need to keep all the mitigation measures here, if we’re really going to get control of this pandemic.”
A study released Sunday highlighted the threat of a more contagious variant of the virus first identified in the UK and found that the variant doubles every ten days in the US and probably in March the dominant tribe in many countries.
Because the variety is 35 to 45 percent more transmissible, experts warn that it could lead to a sharp increase in cases and hospitalizations.
“We certainly expect an increase in cases” on the current track, said Karthik Gangavarapu, a researcher at the Scripps Research Institute and one of the authors of the study. “We still do not know how much a peak it will have.”
Gangavarapu can also help to set up genomic sequences to keep track of the occurrence of different variants, as well as additional contact detection of local public health departments aimed at slowing down the spread of the British variant.
Ashish Jha, dean of the Brown University School of Public Health, issued a warning pointing to the example of Ireland, which has been hit hard by the new variant. It peaked at 132 new cases per 100,000 people in early January. “The United States has never seen such numbers. Only the Dakotas had infection rates so high, “Jha wrote on Twitter.
Jha added that he is ‘optimistic about the late spring and summer’, as the vaccines will be more widely available by now, but the next few weeks are more worrying.
Although there are not enough vaccinations available to immunize everyone in the next few months, and there are logistical challenges in getting shots in millions of arms, the faster the vaccination campaign can go, the more the new variant of the new variant will be blunted. .
It is encouraging that the vaccines work well against the British variant.
But another variant, first identified in South Africa, is more worrying based on initial data. The results so far indicate that the vaccine in the South African variant will decline well. This variant has also been found in the USA, but is less common so far.
Tom Frieden, a former CDC director, wrote that the recent improved trends are probably due to the continued recovery of the peak after the holidays, when an increase in travel and indoor gatherings led to spikes.
“This is not the time to wake us up,” he wrote on Twitter. “We’re progressing with vaccines, but there are variations.”