Even though things look promising for the summer, the coronavirus is still finding new ways to crawl back to normal and threaten our overall sense of health and safety. Lately, it has been the so-called South Africa, UK and Brazilian variants, as well as newer variants such as those that have emerged in New York City and California. It’s hard to track everyone and where they are. The British variant, which appears to be spreading easily, could become dominant in the US, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said on Monday. On Tuesday, health officials announced they had found the Brazilian variant in Massachusetts. The French Ministry of Health has just reported several cases of a new variant that may be more difficult to spot with tests.
You may have questions about what all this means for vaccines, masks (and the lack thereof) and our general future. I spoke to four experts, and here’s what they say we know – and what we’re still waiting to find out.
Why does the virus mutate?
Every time the SARS-CoV-2 virus infects a new person, it must copy itself, says David Kennedy, a disease ecologist at the Penn State Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics. All these copies of the virus run around in your body, causing havoc and making you sick. With each new copy, the errors in the duplication process can be committed. These errors are mutations. What each mutation means depends on the luck of the draw. Most mutations have no effect, make the virus worse when people become infected, or cause it to die immediately. But some mutations make the virus better infected in humans. These are the problems.
OK, how do I know which variants I should freak out?
Well, before the start, it’s mostly good now – more on why. But we just do not know yet if all the latest variants apply. Just as it was difficult to tell how the then new coronavirus would play out worldwide in January 2020, you can not simply look at a variant and predict how it will behave (and how people and governments will address it)). But there are some things scientists look at. The clearest sign that a variant is of concern is if it is responsible for an increasing percentage of cases in a particular area, Kennedy says. This is an indication that the variant is better at infecting humans than the rest of the SARS-CoV-2 currently available. This means that natural selection leads to that particular variant taking over.
Increased transfer is another sign. Contact tracking can help researchers determine if someone infected with a new variant is more likely to spread it to others. Brianne Barker, a virologist at Drew University, says she became more concerned about the British variant when contact tracing data showed that an infected person could spread it to more people than someone with the original SARS-CoV-2.
A third, less certain sign is whether the variant has one particular mutation. The South African, UK and Brazilian variants have scientists the ‘501 mutation’. It’s a change in the small prickly things that cover the virus, which makes it better to end up in human cells, says Scott Weaver, a virologist and scientific director of the Galveston National Laboratory. “The one mutation appears to be responsible for most of the increased transmission,” says Weaver. But only having the 501 mutation is not enough to make a new variant, Kennedy says. “These mutations do not occur by themselves,” he says. ‘Everything is in interaction with all the others. The same mutation on two different viruses can therefore have very different effects. ”
That is, finding out if a new variant is applicable is complicated, even if you are equipped to examine its DNA. If you’re just looking for the news, it’s even harder to tell. If a story about a new variant does not mention explicit evidence that it is becoming more or less communicable, it is probably safe not to worry about it.
Well, what about variants that increase the expansion, like the British?
Even when it comes to variants, your personal calculation should not change so much, except to make sure you avoid other people indoors and wear effective masks. These strategies do work against the variants.
Is it possible that there may be a variant that can really change our strategy – say one that is more transferable on surfaces?
None of the current variants are better with surface transfer, Weaver says. Theoretical can develop a variant that is better to send via surfaces. For example, it can be more stable and last longer on, for example, a table top or door knob. (But you should wash your hands regularly now anyway.)
What is otherwise, for example the British variant which makes it easier to distribute?
At the moment, a few different things can give a larger transmission. It can reproduce more inside the nose and throat. More virus means more shedding – that is, escaping your body and making it possible in others’ bodies. Hamsters with the British variant shed more virus, Weaver’s laboratory found. Or a variant needs less virus to cause an infection.
Are the vaccines less effective against the new variants?
We do not yet know the full picture in detail, but what we do know is actually quite encouraging. The experts I spoke to agreed that the vaccines are likely to be effective in preventing the risk of serious and critical illnesses. The Johnson & Johnson vaccine was tested in the clinical trial against the South African variant. It was 64 percent effective in South Africa. Although less than the 72 percent efficiency in the US, it still offers considerable protection. Remember that the food and drug administration, before the vaccines were tested, was willing to approve anything with more than 50 percent efficacy, and that the annual flu vaccines were 40-60 percent effective.
The variants do not yet exist during the clinical trials of Pfizer and Moderna. But Kennedy says ‘there’s really a good reason to think they’ll still have good efficiency against these variants’, and the other experts I spoke to agree.
Wait, but it sounds like the Johnson & Johnson vaccine is less effective against the South African variant. Why the optimism?
What would be really bad is a variant that can evade immunity-induced immunity completely. The good news is that none of the current variants do. According to a few articles that have not yet been published, antibodies produced using the vaccines appear to effectively neutralize the British variant, Weaver says. Manufacturers are designing a vaccine to help the body throw a bunch of different antibodies to the virus, so they are all enough to eliminate it. Weaver says there is a ‘fairly consistent picture’ that the South African variant is probably a few a little faster against one antibody, “but there will still be a lot of protection” against the vaccine. Antibodies inhibit the virus by attaching to all the nails. “The vein protein is large, so there will be antibodies against many different parts of it,” says Barker. It will take many mutations to make a variant that can evade everyone of those antibodies. In addition, the vaccines also push the body to produce T cells, and a recent pre-print found that the T cells were still equally protective against the new variants. ‘Normally people consider it something that is binary, right? The vaccine works, or the vaccine does not work, ”says Kennedy. “And it does not work that way at all.”
All the evidence so far says that the current variants cannot surpass the vaccines to the point where we really have to worry. We do not yet have data on how the New York or Southern California variants respond to the vaccines, but scientists should have them ‘fairly soon’, perhaps in a month or so, says Bryce Chackerian, an immunologist at the University of New Mexico. School of Medicine.
Well, since at least one variant slightly reduces the protection against at least one vaccine … will we finally get shots?
Can be. “We do not know,” Chackerian said. “All I can say is that the companies that make the RNA vaccines” – the new, easily adaptable technology used by Pfizer and Moderna – “plan for it.” Manufacturers are already creating amplifiers that are targeted at various variants or specific variants. An article by PBS explains that it takes about six weeks between obtaining the genetic sequence of a new variant and preparing a new mRNA vaccine enhancer in humans, plus extra time for clinical trials. At the end of February, the National Institutes of Health began a phase 1 clinical trial of a Moderna booster aimed at the South African variant. Johnson & Johnson is also testing to give a second dose of its existing vaccine, and Moderna and Pfizer are testing a third dose. “I think it’s quite possible next fall or winter,” our coronavirus boosters will get along with our annual flu vaccine, says Weaver.
But again, all four experts I checked with said that the existing vaccines are pretty good compared to the existing variants. The variant ‘should be a motivation to get a vaccine’, says Kennedy. After you do that, it’s reasonable to go ahead and take the CDC’s recent advice on vaccinating socialization.
But there are an awful lot of people who did not get the vaccine, who are social! What do the recent lifts about mask mandates and business restrictions in some states mean for the variants?
Yes, the most important thing is that opening states now, while only about 10 percent of the country is fully vaccinated, is likely to lead to more variants. “The more viruses there are, the greater the chance of new variants,” Kennedy said. Every expert I spoke to agreed that careless reopening could not only increase cases, but that it could help mutate the virus in more difficult ways. “I think it’s very risky,” Weaver said. Some of these new variants will necessarily be harmless. But there is a chance that some will be even more worrying than those we see now.