Georgia’s Democratic and Republican Senate candidates are in a statistical context on Tuesday’s few run-off elections, according to a new poll conducted for a Republican super-PAC.
Why it matters: In both elections, Democrats began voting early and putting pressure on Republicans to increase their election on election day to catch up. The poll indicates a springboard in the races between Republicans David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler and Democrats Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock.
By the numbers: The Preserve America poll, conducted by Adam Geller, surveyed 500 likely voters over the weekend and included both cell phones and landlines. The survey had an error margin of ± 4.38 percentage points.
- Perdue had 45% of the vote against Ossoff’s 46%.
- Loeffler also had 45% versus Warnock’s 46%.
The plot: The poll brought a serious relief to how Democrats got early support: About 54% of respondents said they had already returned their ballots.
- Among early voters, Ossoff was 54% -36% in his race over Perdue; and Warnock led Loeffler by a margin of 54% -37%.
- Among those who did not vote, Perdue led 56% -38%; Loeffler had a 55% -36% advantage.
- The turnout is the most important in determining the winners and the resulting balance of power in the U.S. Senate.
Be smart: Half of the poll was done after the revelations Sunday afternoon that President Trump called Brad Raffensperger, the Secretary of State of Georgia, and asked him to “find” enough ballot papers to declare him the winner in November’s election.