A new, highly contagious strain of the coronavirus was identified in Southern California on Wednesday. It was a disturbing discovery that came when the state surpassed 25,000 deaths in the pandemic and had another increase in cases after the holidays.
The coronavirus variant, known as “B117” and first found in the UK, is thought to be up to 70% more transmissible than earlier strains.
The first case in the U.S. was found in Colorado on Tuesday, but public health officials believe it has probably been circulating in the country for some time.
“Although it has only just been identified, I suspect it has been around since at least September,” said John Swartzberg, an infectious disease expert at UC Berkeley.
The California case was identified in a patient in San Diego County who had no known travel history, meaning the person was exposed to the stress in the community. Public health officials are investigating the matter.
“I’m not surprised you have a case, and probably more cases,” said Dr. Anthony Fauci, the country’s leading expert in infectious diseases, said during a virtual meeting with Gavin Newsom on Wednesday afternoon during which the case was announced in California. “I do not think Californians should feel that this is something strange. This is something that is expected. ”
This was nonetheless discouraging news, as the most populous parts of the state, including the entire Southern California, reported their 13th consecutive day of being overweight in intensive care beds. Many facilities run over capacity, doubling patients in rooms and caring for very sick people in converted gift shops and waiting areas.
In the Bay Area, the availability of intensive care took another dive on Wednesday, dropping to 7.5% and a grim reminder is given that the pressure on hospitals remains strong, even though cases of coronavirus across the region. The hospital is likely to worsen due to the post-Christmas and New Year’s Eve hikes in cases.
Deaths also continue to climb. The state reported a new daily record of 442 deaths on Tuesday. December has so far been the deadliest month in the pandemic, with nearly four times as many deaths due to COVID-19 as reported in November.
“People are seeing a slight decrease in overall cases, but that’s not what we are seeing in the whole country,” said Dr. Mark Ghaly, secretary of California Health and Human Services, said in a news conference on Wednesday. Hospitals in Southern California and the San Joaquin Valley “will have to prepare for additional patients coming from Hanukkah and Christmas, and … what we hope is a much lower rate of transfer during the New Year holidays.
“The hospitals are currently in a difficult place,” he said.
New virus strain
The new coronavirus variant could further impede state surveillance control in cases because it is so much more contagious, public health experts have said. However, there is no evidence that it causes serious diseases.
“So far there is absolutely no evidence that it causes serious illness,” Swartzberg said. “It does not mean we will not find evidence. But I do not think it is going to happen because we would have noticed it. ‘
The fact that the Colorado case was reported to a man who had no travel history helps the theory that ‘this variant was transmitted from person to person in the United States,’ according to Dr. Henry Walke, CDC incident manager.
Although it does not seem to cause more serious illnesses, he believes the variant is more contagious, which could potentially put more pressure on our healthcare systems. ‘
Swartzberg said it is possible that the unnoticed strain is one of the key factors contributing to the current increase in cases in California.
“Why did things start rushing in October?” he said. “It does raise the question. Could this new strain be another reason why it exploded? ‘
Matters and deaths
The rate of new cases per 100,000 residents declined this week in the state and in the Bay, by just under 100 for California and at about 50 for the Bay.
For the state, it is still well above the national average of about 60 cases per 100,000 inhabitants per day. But that’s an improvement from last week, when California had an average of 115 cases per 100,000 residents per day.
California reported a new record of 66,811 cases on Monday, but many of them were due to overdue reports over Christmas. Indeed, much of this week’s reporting is probably less accurate than usual, as provinces have delayed activities between Christmas and New Year.
Worldwide, 25,033 people have died from COVID-19 since the start of the pandemic, including 2,478 in the Bay. Despite the large number of deaths reported this month, California still has one of the lowest death rates in the country: about 64 deaths per 100,000 residents since the pandemic began, compared to a national average of about 100 deaths per 100,000.
Hospitals and intensive care
The availability of the ICU across the country remained at 0% on Wednesday for the sixth consecutive day.
There are still open ICU beds in the state, but the California Department of Public Health uses a complex algorithm to determine capacity, based in part on the number of COVID-19 patients admitted to the hospital. The algorithm, combined with the fact that so many hospitals in hard-hit parts of the state are far too many, means that the net availability of the state is zero.
ICU availability in the Bay Area dropped sharply overnight, from 10.4% on Tuesday to 7.5%. Greater Sacramento had about 17.4% ICU availability and the sparsely populated region of Northern California had 31.5% available.
About 2050 people have been hospitalized in the Bay Area with COVID-19 since Tuesday – the first time the number has risen to 2,000 since the pandemic began, and more than double the peak of the summer boom. Approximately 20,612 people were hospitalized throughout COVID-19.
Things can get worse because the state is seeing an increase in issues stemming from travel and gatherings over Christmas and New Year’s Eve.
“Even though things are bad now, it’s really going to get a lot worse in January,” Swartzberg said. ‘It’s an easy prediction to make. We know that travel is like throwing gasoline on the fire. We saw what happened in Thanksgiving. January is going to be hell. ”
Erin Allday and Aidin Vaziri are staff writers for the San Francisco Chronicle. Email: [email protected], [email protected] Twitter: @erinallday, @SFMusic