Mutated versions of the coronavirus threaten to prolong the pandemic, perhaps for years to come, killing more people and deepening the global economic crisis in the process.
The whole picture: The US and the world are controlling the virus before these variants can gain a bigger foothold. But many experts say they already expect things to get worse before they get better. And it also means that the end of the pandemic may get further away.
- ‘It can take four to five years before we finally see the end of the pandemic and the beginning of a post-COVID normal, ‘the Singapore education minister said last week, according to the Wall Street Journal.
Where it says: “There are essentially two separate COVID-19 epidemics,” Dutch officials recently said, referring to the original strain of COVID-19 and the emerging threat of mutated versions of the virus.
- There is light at the end of the tunnel for the first epidemic. Although the virus is still spreading uncontrollably across the U.S. and much of the world, cases and hospitalizations are at an all-time high, with vaccinations gradually increasing.
- But the next iteration, fueled by variants of the virus, is already taking hold.
What’s next: A British variant of the coronavirus is likely to become the dominant strain in the US soon, experts say. It is significantly more contagious than the virus we have been dealing with so far, and some researchers believe it can also be about 30% more deadly.
- “The hurricane is coming,” Michael Osterholm, an infectious disease expert at the University of Minnesota and transition adviser at Biden, told Meet the Press on Sunday.
- A more contagious and deadly strain of the virus can easily send cases, hospitalizations and deaths back to record levels quickly, even if the vaccinations continue.
‘We’ll go see something like we have not seen before in this country, ”said Osterholm.
Vaccines work against the British variant, and they will help control its spread, just as they will help control the overall pandemic.
- But vaccinations can increase just as fast. The Biden government is trying to push doses out the door as quickly as possible, but the chances of the more contagious virus moving faster are greater.
- The existing vaccines do not seem to work so well against some other variants, including a particularly disturbing one that was first identified in South Africa. It does work, and it appears to prevent serious illnesses and deaths, which are the most important, but it may not prevent as many infections.
- Vaccines can rework their recipes and come up with shotguns to address more resistant strains, but it will take time.
How it works: All these problems stem from the same underlying problem – the uncontrolled spread of the virus.
- More cases mean more hospitalizations and more deaths. Larger outbreaks also provide more opportunities for mutations to arise and to spread.
- A more transmissible virus means that a larger portion of the population – perhaps as much as 85% – needs to be vaccinated to achieve herd immunity. It will be some distance away, given the widespread hesitant vaccine across the country.
Because vaccine production still scaling up, getting things well enough under control to tackle a second phase of the pandemic will have to rely heavily on social distance and mask wear.
- This is not a very promising position to be in, especially not for a country like the US
The conclusion: Vaccines are working, and that is still the key to ending this pandemic. But leaning on them almost only makes the job more difficult and is likely to prolong this pandemic by years.