People protesting in the streets of Myanmar after a military coup are doing so under very different circumstances compared to previous protests in the country, according to an analyst at the policy research firm Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Police clashed with protesters Tuesday during four people were injured, including one critical injury, reported Reuters. It was the most violent day of protests against the military, overthrowing the democratically elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi this month.
“This is what people have been afraid of all week as these protests have grown, and you have had tens, maybe hundreds, thousands of people in the streets of Yangon and Mandalay and Naypyitaw,” said Gregory Poling, senior fellow for Southeast Asia at CSIS , told CNBC. “Squawk Box Asia” on Wednesday.
Protesters ride scooters during a large convoy demonstration against the military coup in Naypyidaw, Myanmar on February 7, 2021.
STR | AFP | Getty Images
He explained that these protests were very different from the large-scale protests that took place in 2007, known as the “Saffron Revolution”, which was caused by the military government’s decision to increase fuel prices.
“This is a Myanmar that has spent the last ten years democratizing for the world,” Poling said. “Most citizens have mobile internet access – or even before the coup. Most people on the street probably do not remember the Saffron Revolution directly and certainly have no memory of 1988.”
Myanmar saw nationwide protests, marches and civil unrest in 1988, sometimes called the 1988 Uprising.
“It can be both good and bad, because it could very well convince them that the army will not strike,” Poling said of the current protesters. “Or maybe it gives them the confidence to show the generals that they do not rule the same Myanmar as they did 15 years ago.”
He explained that although it was a “remarkably dangerous moment” for Myanmar, the junta did not immediately jump to the worst possible reaction. During previous protests, protesters were killed in violent acts while many were arrested.
Protesters in the capital Naypyitaw and other cities such as Mandalay were injured by security forces, Reuters reported, citing local media. The agency reported that police largely fired into the air and used water cannons and tear gas to disperse protesters. CNBC could not independently verify the reports.
The United States condemned the military takeover and threatened sanctions. Beijing’s response was softer, while the Foreign Ministry in recent press conferences described China as a ‘friendly neighbor of Myanmar’ and sought solutions to ensure the latter’s political and social stability.
But China, Japan, Singapore and Thailand have a greater impact on the Myanmar economy than the US has.
“I think the real question is what Japan is doing, because it is the only one of the major players that the generals can impose any economic pain on,” he said.
Japan’s deputy defense minister warned this month that if the world closes channels for communication with Myanmar’s military generals in response to the coup, it could push the Southeast Asian nation closer to China, local reports said.