Amid strong death tolls indicating early immunization efforts are saving lives in California, Gavin Newsom said Friday that the state is likely to make vaccinations available to all people by the end of April.
California’s vaccine supply is expected to increase dramatically by the end of this month, and the state could drop its admission structure within five or six weeks, Newsom said at a news conference in San Francisco. To date, vaccines in California have been strictly restricted based on age, occupation, and other risk factors.
However, the early emphasis on vaccinating older people and residents of nursing homes seems to be bearing fruit.
COVID-19 deaths have dropped in the Bay Area since the height of the winter push, mainly due to people no longer meeting for major holidays. But vaccinations are also likely to play a role, experts said.
In January, the deadliest month of the pandemic to date, the Bay Area reported an average of 54 deaths a day due to COVID-19. The rate has been reduced by more than half so far this month to 22 deaths per day.
Experts believe the decline in deaths could be linked to the end of the boom, and especially distance from a plethora of holidays that encouraged travel and family gatherings, and that led to subsequent coronavirus infections. They also suspect that vaccinations that are particularly good at preventing serious illness and death have an effect.
“This is fantastic news!” says Dr. Robert Siegel, an expert in infectious disease at Stanford. “It was expected. Many communal living facilities with older individuals, for example, have systematically vaccinated all the residents and caregivers. ”
The general period between date of infection and date of death is about four to six weeks with the coronavirus. People who are dying now are therefore likely to be infected in February, just as the vaccination efforts in nursing homes and 75-year-olds have reached their peak.
During the pandemic, elderly people and residents of nursing homes had much higher mortality rates than any other group. In some provinces, deaths in old age homes accounted for half of the total death toll.
Deaths related to Thanksgiving, Christmas and New Year’s gatherings have probably also decreased, Siegel said.
So far, San Francisco has recorded 25 deaths in March, just over one a day. In February and January, San Francisco recorded 98 and 138 deaths, respectively, averaging about four a day. Data on deaths for the use of San Francisco compiled by The Chronicle based on the date on which deaths are reported, not necessarily the date of someone’s death. Some death reports are delayed by several weeks.
Santa Clara County has reported 115 deaths so far in March, or six per day. This is a drop of more than 50% from February, when the country recorded 13 deaths per day. In January, the province recorded 705 deaths, or about 23 per day.
The Bay Area as a whole has experienced a sharp drop in COVID deaths, from a peak of 1,677 in January to 1,127 in February and 371 so far this month. In California, deaths dropped from a peak of 482 per day in January to 240 per day this month.
Dr Matt Willis, the health officer in Marin County, said he was confident that at least some of the decline was due to vaccinations. His country reported 33 deaths to COVID in January and six so far this month.
“We started with some of these smaller, more clearly defined environments, such as long-term care facilities, and saw a very clear and reassuring decline in cases and hospitalizations and deaths in that area,” he said. “It’s a microcosm of what I think we’re also seeing over a longer period of time over the population as a whole.”
He said the country gave at least one vaccine dose to 45% of the population, or about 25% of the total population; the vaccines are currently only approved for people 16 years and older. “We’re starting to see the impact. “I think the progress we are seeing can be at least partly attributed to vaccinations,” he said.
In Contra Costa County, dr. Chris Farnitano, the health officer, said 93% of residents aged 75 and older received at least one dose of vaccine, and that he could see the payout in fewer outbreaks in nursing homes and other shared living spaces.
“At the peak, we had more than 60 active outbreaks in nursing homes in January, and now we want to think I have seven,” he said. “We just saw a huge improvement. If we do get a fourth wave, I’m very hope it will not be so deadly because of the vaccines. ‘
Business is also declining week after week in the Bay and the state as a whole. But nationwide, cases have recently leveled off after a long period of decline, and public health experts have warned that parts of the country could see a surge in cases if they do not remain vigilant.
Dr Anthony Fauci, the country’s leading expert on infectious diseases, has repeatedly warned that it is too early for states to relax public health guidelines despite increased vaccinations. He mentioned hot spots in the northeast where the number of coronavirus cases is increasing again.
“It’s really very risky to declare victory before you have the level of infection in the community at a much lower level than 53,000 cases a day,” Fauci said during an information session in the White House on Friday. “It’s unfortunate for me, but not surprising that you see an increase in the number of cases.”
Dr Catherine Blish, an expert on infectious diseases at Stanford, said she was encouraged that California and the Bay were becoming less and less, especially as the more infectious variants took hold.
“I find it absolutely encouraging” that the state has risen another climb so far, Blish said. ‘We were all worried that the (UK variant) would have the potential to cause a new outbreak as elsewhere. The fact that this was not the case is a great reflection of the real excellent compliance with public health measures, combined with increased vaccine supply. ”
Dr. George Rutherford, an expert indicator for infectious diseases of the UCSF, said the Bay is not out of the woods yet. But with many effective vaccines reaching some of the most vulnerable populations, the region may never again reach the fatal peaks reported in winter.
“I think we put the worst behind us,” he said.
San Francisco Chronicle staff writers Aidin Vaziri and Michael Williams contributed to this report.
Matthias Gafni and Erin Allday San Francisco Chronicle staff writers. Email: [email protected] [email protected] Twitter: @mgafni @erinallday