More than a third of the Antarctic ice shelf runs the risk of collapsing as the earth continues to warm.
In a new study, scientists at the University of Reading found that if climate change continues, if the earth’s world temperature rises to 4.2 Celsius above pre-industrial levels, about 500,000 square kilometers of the Antarctic ice shelf could collapse into the sea. Ice shelves are permanently floating ice sheets attached to the shoreline, and the collapse of these shelves could significantly increase world sea levels, the researchers say.
“Ice racks are important buffers that prevent glaciers on land from flowing freely in the ocean and contribute to sea level. When it collapses, it’s like a giant cork taken out of a bottle, carrying unimaginable amounts of water from glaciers into the sea can shower., “lead study author Ella Gilbert, a research scientist at the University of Reading’s Department of Meteorology, said in a statement.
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Every summer in Antarctica, ice melts on the surface of the ice shelf and water runs into the snow below where it freezes again. But in years with more melting ice than snowfall, that water ends up on the surface of the ice shelf and falls into cracks in the ice, melting and growing the cracks until the ice shelf breaks down in the ocean. This exact thing has to do with the Larsen B-ysrak in 2002 and in this study, researchers identify the ice shelf Larsen C as a particular risk of collapse in warmer temperatures.
In this study, researchers used high-resolution climate modeling technology to predict how melting ice and runoff will affect ice shelf stability over time and at different world temperatures. They modeled ice shelf vulnerability at global temperatures of 2.7 degrees F (1.5 degrees C), 3.6 degrees F (2 degrees C) and 7.2 degrees F (4 degrees C) above pre-industrial levels, according to three scenarios possible within this century, according to the statement.
“We know that when molten ice accumulates on the surface of ice racks, it can break and collapse spectacularly. Previous research has given us the bigger picture when it comes to predicting Antarctic ice shelf degradation, but our new study uses the latest modeling techniques to fill in the finer details and provide more precise projections, ”said Gilbert.
They found that 34% of all ice sheets in Antarctica (7.2 degrees F) above pre-industrial global temperatures include 34% of all ice sheets in Antarctica (67% of the ice shelf surface on the Antarctic Peninsula).
“The findings highlight the importance of limiting global temperature rises as set out in the Paris Agreement if we are to avoid the worst effects of climate change, including sea level rise,” Gilbert said.
The Paris Agreement is an international treaty signed in 2016, concluded within the framework of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Under the agreement, countries promised to work to limit global temperature rise to 3.6 degrees F (2 degrees C), or preferably 2.7 degrees F (1.5 degrees C), above pre-industrial levels.
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Scientists are concerned about the continuing effects of global warming some time on floating ice shelves.
“The floating ice shelves around the coast of Antarctica are of particular concern,” Paul Cutler, program director of the Antarctic Science Division of the National Science Foundation, said during a live webinar on Thursday (April 8). “They link to the changing ocean, holding back the flow of inland ice as it moves to the ocean. So if you lose the integrity of the ice shelves, you release more inland ice to the ocean, and you cause even more sea level rise. ‘
Rising sea levels can have very dangerous consequences, including extreme coastal flooding, destructive erosion and more.
On top of that, “with the loss of the glaciers, you actually lose their gravity,” Cutler said. “So if you lose West Antarctica, you lose gravity to the United States. And actually, part of the sea level rise we see in the U.S. is also related to the loss of ice by the indirect gravity effect.”
“Limiting global warming will not only be good for Antarctica – maintaining ice shelves means less global sea level rise, and that’s good for all of us,” Gilbert said.
This work was published April 8 in the journal Geophysical Research Letters.
Email Chelsea Gohd at [email protected] or follow her on Twitter @chelsea_gohd. Follow us on Twitter @Spacedotcom and on Facebook.