According to the latest forecast from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington, more than 600,000 Americans will have died from Covid-19 by June 1st.
The model predicted a death toll of 614,503 Americans – slightly lower than the previous estimate released last week, which predicted 631,000 deaths.
According to the IHME, warmer weather and wider vaccination could help slow down the transmission from now until August.
“We expect the vaccination to reach 145 million adults by June 1 and to prevent the scaling up of 114,000 deaths,” IHME said in a statement.
According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, more than 50 million doses of vaccine have been administered nationwide. And if 95% of Americans start wearing masks in the next week, 34,000 lives could be saved.
The British variant: Distribution of the B.1.1.7 virus variant, first identified in the UK, could complicate any possible deterioration. At least 981 cases of the B.1.1.7 variant have been found in 37 states, the CDC said this week.
The team said the expected variance was calculated in their forecasts for this forecast. In the worst case, US deaths by June 1 could be 645,000.
Other factors: Progress can also be reversed if people let their guards down, IHME said.
“Distribution was limited during the winter through masked wear, reduced mobility and the avoidance of high-risk settings such as indoor dining,” IHME said. “As the daily number of cases decreases and vaccination increases, behavior is likely to change to the increased risk of transmission.”