Many provinces are seeing a pop-up in their seven-day average of new COVID-19 cases, as well as their positivity rate on coronavirus diagnostic tests.
It could be a sign of a new boom. Or it could very well be statistical noise: limited coronavirus testing and uneven reporting of numbers during the holidays means the trend lines are unreliable at the moment.
In fact, coronavirus numbers are expected to continue to rise over the next few days, simply because reporting agencies are catching up on overdue data and COVID-19 patients who passed the test during the holidays are now being tested.
Statewide, Michigan’s seven-day average number of new cases is now 2,839, up 8% from 2,631 a week ago. The seven-day average positivity rate is now 9.2%, up from 8.3% a week ago.
Below is a closer look at the rural data, based on the criteria used by the Michigan Department of Heath and Human Services in assessing coronavirus risk levels. The scale used by MDHHS has six levels – ‘low’ plus AE levels.
First, a look at the seven-day average positive percentage per country, grouped according to state statistics.
- Level E (more than 20%): None.
- Level D (15-20%): Hillsdale, Branch and Cass.
- Level C (10-15%): 33 counties, highest to lowest – Crawford, Roscommon, Van Buren, Tuscola, Oscoda, Saginaw, Wexford, St Joseph, St Clair, Osceola, Oceana, Lapeer, Missaukee, Huron, Benzie , Macomb, Jackson, Eaton, Monroe, Dickinson, Bay, Lenawee, Alcona, Clinton, Shiawassee, Ottawa, Newaygo, Kent, Allegan, Ogemaw, Iosco, Wayne and Kalamazoo.
- Level B (7-10%): 23 counties, highest to lowest – Genesee, Muskegon, Arenac, Livingston, Grand Traverse, Clare, Montmorency, Midland, Barry, Oakland, Ingham, Berrien, Ionia, Mecosta, Presque Isle, Gladwin, Manistee, Alpena, Cheboygan, Leelanau, Washtenaw, Montcalm and Calhoun.
- Level A (3-7%): 16 provinces – Kalkaska, Chippewa, Isabella, Menominee, Sanilac, Otsego, Antrim, Houghton, Mason, Delta, Gratiot, Marquette, Gogebic, Mackinac, Emmet and Iron.
- Low (below 3%): Eight provinces – Luce, Keweenaw, Charlevoix, Schoolcraft, Lake, Ontonagon, Baraga and Algiers.
In the chart below, you can search by country by name to see the average seven-day positivity rate for December 26-Jan. 1.
The interactive map below shows the seven day average testing rate per country. You can place your cursor over a country to see the underlying data.
New cases per capita
New daily cases per capita are another measure used by the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services to access coronavirus risk.
In this measure – which calculates the average number of new cases per 1 million inhabitants – 65 provinces are at level E, the highest risk level on the MDHHS scale. The limit for level E is 150 cases per day per million inhabitants.
The levels for the other 14 provinces:
- Level D (70 to 149 cases per million): Roscommon, Wexford, Mason, Leelanau, Houghton, Alpena, Emmet, Kalkaska, Marquette, Manistee, Gogebic, Lake and Ontonagon.
- Level C (40 to 69 cases per million): Alger, Otsego, Mackinac and Cheboygan.
- Low (below 7 cases per million): Charlevoix and Luce.
Here is an online database that allows readers to see the number of new coronavirus cases in the last seven days compared to the previous week, as well as the number per capita adjusting according to population. The arrows indicate whether the total number of new cases reported in the last seven days has increased or decreased compared to the previous seven days.
The current scores are based on new cases reported on December 27-Jan. 2 The map below is shaded based on the state’s six levels. The arrows indicate whether the total number of new cases reported in the past seven days has increased or decreased compared to December 20-26.
Readers can place their cursor over a country to see the underlying data. (Hint: you can drag the map with your cursor to see the whole UP)
MDHHS overall score per region
MDHHS assigned an overall score to each of the state’s MI Start regions, looking at factors such as new cases and deaths per capita, test positivity rates, number of tests administered, and visits to the COVID-19 Symptoms Emergency Department.
Since November 4, all eight MI Start regions in Michigan have been at the highest level the state uses to determine coronavirus risk.
This interactive map shows the eight regions and their current scores. You can place your cursor over a country to see the underlying data.
(The MI districts of the state: Region 1 is the Detroit region; Region 2 is Grand Rapids; Region 3, Kalamazoo; Region 4, Saginaw; Region 5, Lansing; Region 6, Traverse City; Region 7, Jackson and Region 8, the Upper Peninsula.)
Below are online databases that readers can look up over the past twenty days at the provincial level.
Cases per day it was reported to the state
First is a graph showing new cases reported to the state every 30 days. This is based on the fact that a confirmed coronavirus test is reported to the state, which means that the patient first became ill days before.
You can call up a chart for each country and place your cursor over a bar to see the date and number of cases. (As of September 1, the state stopped reporting numbers on Sundays.)
(In some cases, a state reported a negative number (decrease) in daily new cases, following a reclassification by the Department of Health and Human Services in Michigan. In such cases, we deducted cases from the previous date and 0 in the reported date.)
The following graph below shows new cases for the past 30 days based on the onset of symptoms. In this graph, the numbers for the past few days are incomplete due to the delay time between people getting sick and getting a confirmed coronavirus test result, which can last up to a week or longer.
You can call up a chart for each country and place your cursor over a bar to see the date and number of cases.
More localized maps
Below are two maps created by the EpiBayes research group at the University of Michigan’s Department of Epidemiology, which have access to sub-province data collected by the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services.
The interactive maps divide the state into hexameters of ten kilometers to give a more localized look at where coronavirus cases occur. You can click here to go to the website of the research project.
The first map looks at confirmed and probable cases of coronavirus in the past week. You can click on a hexagon to see the underlying data.
You can use the triangle button at the top right of the map to switch to the second map, which shows total confirmed coronavirus cases and deaths since the onset of the pandemic.
Last daily report
On Saturday, January 2, the state reported 8,983 new cases of coronavirus and 265 new deaths for December 31-January 2.
The map below shows total confirmed cases and deaths of coronavirus since the onset of the pandemic. You can place your cursor over a country to see the underlying numbers.
Visit MLive’s coronavirus database here for more information across the country. To find a test site in your area, you can visit the state’s online test seeker here, send an email to [email protected], or call 088-535-6136 between 8 a.m. and 5 p.m. weekdays.
Visit https://www.mlive.com/coronavirus/data/ for more information on COVID-19 in Michigan.
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