Senate Democrats were shocked a few weeks ago. Senator Patrick Leahy, Dvt., Is the president of the Senate pro tempore, the most senior member of the majority party, and third in the presidency. Leahy joined the Senate in 1975 – when President Gerald Ford was in office.
Leahy presented the swearing in of senators as jurors in the second pending trial of former President Trump. Leahy’s voice sounded weak during the session. A few hours later, the message came that 80-year-old Leahy was not feeling well. The treating Capitol doctor recommended the Vermont Democratic chief for some tests in the hospital.
Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, DN.Y., speaks at a news conference on the adoption of legislation to prevent gun violence in the Capitol in Washington, Thursday, March 11, 2021.
(AP)
Leahy was quiet at home again later that evening. And Leahy opened the Senate the next day.
What would Democrats do if Leahy did something happen – or frankly, any other senator on their side?
“It’s the kind of thing that keeps me on my feet at night,” moaned a senior Democratic Senate assistant. “I’m worried about a lot of things.”
Vermont has a GOP governor. Government of Vermont, Phil Scott, would have the right to appoint someone if, with God, Leahy happened. But in a 50-50 senate, everything works on a daily basis.
This is a 50-50 senate. Democrats are the majority party based on the ouster of Vice President Harris. But a few days before the start of Congress, Democrats find themselves in a practical minority. And the Republicans were in virtual majority.
Sen. Mark Warner, D-Va., Was exposed to someone who tested positive for coronavirus. This meant that he had to do self-quarantine. And with Warner out, Republicans technically had the majority. Unlike the House of Representatives, there is no remote voting in the Senate.
In their absence, the Democrats found that they even voted on a power-sharing agreement between the parties to start Congress. The Senate recognizes Leahy as president pro tempore and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, DN.Y. But operationally, GOPers continued to use committee hamlets until the Senate finally worked out an organizational agreement.
It could be difficult for the Democratic majority for two years – if not less. As we always say in this space: it’s about math. It’s about math. It’s about math.
“Narrow majorities are tough. But it’s especially difficult during a pandemic,” said Norm Ornstein of the American Enterprise Institute. “If you lose one of your members for some time, you are in danger of losing the ability to gain a majority.”
Very progressive and liberal carp Schumer to drop the senate filibuster. But would not the resistance be if Democrats eliminate the filibuster – and then lose the majority?
Reservation empty.
Democrats may have no pillow in the Senate. Democrats, however, have a tiny bit of buffer in the House. But it is shrinking.
The current outline is 220 Democrats versus 211 Republicans with four vacancies. As it is now, Democrats can only lose four votes on their side of the aisle and still pass a bill without GOP assistance. And Republicans are getting closer and closer to shrinking the Democratic majority even further. The Senate has just confirmed former Representative Marcia Fudge, D-Ohio, as Secretary of Housing and Urban Development. This week, the Senate is likely to rep. Deb Haaland, DN.M., confirmed as Home Secretary. The Democratic majority will shrink even more.
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The late re-elected Luke Letlow, R-La., Died of COVID-19 even before taking office. The seat is a GOP seat, without sitting. The late Representative Ron Wright, R-Texas, passed away at COVID last month. Democrats may have an outside chance of winning the seat in a special election.
Remember, governors cannot appoint people into the House. New Mexico and Ohio will have to hold special elections for the Haaland and Fudge seats for the time being. Both districts are firmly democratic. But it could be a while before the Democrats get their seats back.
“A majority that we encounter up to one, two or three is not an experience we had in the House,” Ornstein said. “This is clearly a time of very significant danger. For just the speaking out of Nancy Pelosi, but for the policy agenda of Joe Biden.”
Ballot papers can eliminate a penny daily. It also brings into question the possibility that the House may turn in the middle of Congress – depending on resignations or, God forbid, death. The Senate changed party control during a Congress. But not the House.
Nevertheless, it poses extraordinary policy challenges for President Biden, Pelosi and Schumer.
Senator Patrick Leahy, D-Vt., The pro-temporal president of the Senate, announces the Senate version of the COVID-19 enlightenment bill by a 50-49 vote in the Senate at the U.S. Capitol in Washington , Saturday, March 6, 2021.
(Senate television via AP)
Liberal Democrats bark that their party has taken control of the White House, the House and the Senate. They expect major action on climate change, gun control, minimum wage and state capture for Washington, DC and Puerto Rico. But you can not do that in such a divided House and Senate. In fact, the problem is not so much that Republicans will oppose these measures – but moderate democrats could stand in the way.
Progressive Democrats interfere with their moderates at their own risk. Kick the Democrats who represent the swallow districts or states on the edge of the road and the Democratic majority evaporates.
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Liberals have not revolted over the COVID bill. But there were concerns about the fact that liberal support had disappeared. Therefore, Schumer focused on immediately discussing climate change on the floor once he worked out a power-sharing arrangement for the 50-50 Senate with Mitch McConnell of the Senate, R-Ky. Democrats need to walk a thin line – repeatedly inciting the core of the party, while not alienating moderates.
What happens if liberals or moderates are not willing to bow? To counteract disagreement, Democratic leaders may have only one option. Hold an exciting, soccer coach’s halftime speech to pull the players together.
“You’re just one running back and one wide receiver. And you’re saying to your team, ‘Are we going to do this or not? Are we going to get together or are we going to show the best we have? “Are we putting it into play or are we going to fight among ourselves? The choice is ours to make and the interests are high,” said Danny Weiss, former chief of staff at Pelosi.
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Pelosi is a good voice who has just walked in the door of the Capitol. But there are limits to her powers with such a narrow majority.
“The House is a beautiful instrument of politics,” Weiss said. “You can win anything by one vote, except for a suspension bill. But in a place where you can win by one vote, I think they still have enough margin to stay in power.”
And in a Congress that is so divided, it can amount to a single vote – on the majority of occasions.