MLB teams that have to make a big move

The Mets made the biggest splash of the Hot Stove season last Thursday by acquiring shortstop Francisco Lindor and right-hand man Carlos Carrasco of Cleveland. Landing two players of that caliber – especially a star as magnetic as Lindor – is remarkable in any context. But it was especially great for the

The Mets made the biggest splash of the Hot Stove season last Thursday by acquiring shortstop Francisco Lindor and right-hand man Carlos Carrasco of Cleveland.

Landing two players of that caliber – especially a star as magnetic as Lindor – is remarkable in any context. But it was especially big for the Mets, given their place in a competitive National League East crowned by three-time defending division champion Braves. According to Dan Szymborski of FanGraphs, his ZiPS system had the Mets seven games behind Atlanta in the predicted rankings before the trade. Now the two teams are virtually equal, with the Mets’ chance of jumping about 31 percentage points in the post-season, up to 72.4%.

In fact, ZiPS shows that at the time of the Lindor trade, the Mets had the most to gain from any team, in terms of the probability of playoff games, through a five-win addition to their roster (or roughly the combined impact of Lindor and Carrasco). But there are many other clubs that will get a similar clash from such a move.

If you finish Szymborski’s calculations, here are five of the teams that can benefit the most from a Mets-sized splash, and one way each can achieve that kind of performance. Note that these proposed moves are not necessarily at the five-win level – it’s hard to find – but that they will still give a significant boost to the October hopes of each team.

Angels
This is a time of opportunity in Anaheim. Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon are superstars in their first series, and the American League West may be as ripe to take as in a while. Both Houston and Oakland are likely to lose several key players, while Seattle and Texas are not yet ready to jump back to the standings. New Angels general manager Perry Minasian replaced Andrelton Simmons with José Iglesias on short notice and added Raisel Iglesias closer, but has yet to find the kind of difference-making player who could change the balance of power in the West.

A splashing move: Right-handed free agent signed Trevor Bauer. It was a sore spot for the English to play, and although Dylan Bundy was a tremendous addition last year, the team was still only 19th in FanGraphs’ projected WAR. While Shohei Ohtani is far from certain at this point, it’s the best way to get Trout back to the post-season to win the reigning NL Cy Young Awards winner – which is predicted to be around 4 WAR.

Blue Jays
They seem to be in the mix for quite a few impact players on the outskirts, but so far they have not landed, with left-back Robbie Ray signing as their one notable move. However, it is more a matter of who and when than when. The Blue Jays jumped to 32-28 in the shortened ’20 campaign of 95 losses in 2019, which made the post-season behind a young core of position players and last year’s great free agent acquisition, Hyun Jin Ryu. The club still ends up behind the Rays and Yankees in the division, but with Tampa Bay saying goodbye to Blake Snell and Charlie Morton and the Yankees also having a quiet winter, there is an opening here for Toronto.

A splashing move: Sign free agent fielder George Springer. While the Jays could go in a few different directions – and snatching DJ LeMahieu out of the Yanks would undoubtedly be satisfying – Springer is probably the best fit. He will be a defensive upgrade in the center above Randal Grichuk and bring a winning history, not to mention his elite bat. Springer can help make the club not only a participant in the division, but also a participant in the championship.

Cardinal
It could really be one of the top four teams in the NL Central. The Cets, Cardinals, Brewers and Reds each set aside five teams, according to ZiPS. This is because of how tightly the clubs are put together. Yet no one has stepped forward this off-season to try to improve the roster. (In fact, the deductions were the most striking of the deductions section, with the caption by Yu Darvish of Chicago). As for the Cardinals, they have managed to push into the playoffs in the playoffs, but their talent lacks high ceiling talent. Almost all St. Louis has done this winter is to reject Kolten Wong’s club option and (yet) not sign the years-long faces of franchisees Yadier Molina and Adam Wainwright.

A splashing move: Trade for third baseman Nolan Arenado. While St. Louis has been linked with the Rockies star in the past, it’s probably a big deal, given the six years and $ 199 million left on Arenado’s contract, and his exclusion clause after 2021. But maybe the Cards can get creative, given all the big contracts that come out of the club’s books after this season (Matt Carpenter, Dexter Fowler, Andrew Miller and Carlos Martínez). Assuming his offensive slump in 2020 was the product of a strange, shortened season, Arenado would be a big upgrade in third place over the 35-year-old Carpenter, who has struggled for the past two years.

Subjects
While the Hot Stove so far has been mostly quiet, the Nats have been relatively active and have addressed a thin line by trading for Josh Bell, first player, and Kyle Schwarber, left-back. Washington has addressed two main areas of need and now Juan Soto and Trea Turner have rumbled a bit more, but honestly, the work should not be done. The Lindor trade made that clear, with ZiPS now considering the Nats a clear third behind the Braves and Mets.

A splashing move: Signature of free agent JT Realmuto. The questionable depth of the Nats means that Mike Rizzo, general manager, can also make a significant addition on the second or third base, or even in the starting rotation, where there are many question marks behind the Big Three of Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and Patrick Corbin is. . But Nats catchers, led by Yan Gomes, sit near the bottom of FanGraphs’ projections, while Realmuto has a strong case as the best overall backstop in the game. If Washington is willing to make the necessary financial commitment, it will help a lot to challenge Atlanta and New York.

twin
The Lindor trade helped Minnesota, whose probability of the ZiPS post-season rose to nearly 75%, with Cleveland falling back to a clear third in the AL Central. On the other hand, the twins watched the division’s other biggest competitor, the White Sox, trade for Lance Lynn and now reach a deal with free agent Liam Hendriks through sources. The twins have been relatively quiet, and if they want to keep up with Chicago and win their third right-wing crown, a few reinforcements are in order – even beyond the seemingly inevitable return of Nelson Cruz.

A splashing move: Trade for Luis Castillo or Sonny Gray. Both starting jars have get into trade talks, with the Reds sustaining further pay cuts, and both are among the top 20 pitchers in MLB (with Castillo slightly above Gray). The Twins’ rotation is strong at the top (Kenta Maeda, José Berríos), but somewhat shaky below, especially since Jake Odorizzi and Rich Hill are free agents. While Minnesota may be content with gaining depth in the rotation, the best way to have the White Sox against Castillo or Gray is the fifth starter, Devin Smeltzer and Lewis Thorpe. Such a move would cost the Twins prospect prosperity, but no judge would break the bank.