Democrats’ ability to deliver on their promise of more COVID-19 relief under a Biden administration largely depends on their success – or failure – in the aftermath of the Georgia Senate. The politics around the $ 2,000 stimulus test show what will happen if they lose.
President Donald Trump has signed a new incentive package after denying it for a few days over his dissatisfaction with the content, and on Monday, lawmakers will vote to increase the second round of checks from $ 600 to $ 2,000.
Trump forced the $ 2000 check on the table with his refusal to sign the stimulus bill. Its fate, like so many other issues, however, does not lie in his hands, but especially that of one legislator: Senate Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY).
The president said McConnell was arranging a vote in the Senate, although the majority leader did not comment on the matter himself. Most Republicans were opposed to greater stimulus controls and it is not clear that Trump would win a vote.
McConnell’s power highlights the potential pitfall for Democrats once President-elect Joe Biden takes office. If the Republican incumbents win in the run-up to Georgia and the GOP retains control of the Senate, McConnell is back there to thwart democratic ambitions.
The $ 2,000 check will pass the House of Representatives because the Democrats, who have a majority in the chamber, pushed hard. The chance in the Senate is less certain.
Although Trump has also struggled for $ 2,000 checks, McConnell has shown he is happy to break up with the recent president. He, along with fellow Republican senators, can easily block what Trump wants, and many do not agree with him on the size of the checks.
This would not be the first time they have insisted on stimulus proposals. The Democrats’ HEROES Act and an amended version of it both passed through the House, and then failed in the Senate where McConnell dominates.
The run-off from Georgia, which polls say will be rigorous, will determine whether McConnell’s majority is a blockade for Democrats over the stimulus issue and beyond.
If the Democratic candidates in Georgia – Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock – defeated incumbent GOP senators David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler, the Democrats would have 48 senators and two independent people talking to them and dividing the chamber 50/50.
Tiebreak votes will then be cast by the Vice President, who will be Kamala Harris following the Inauguration Day on January 20, giving the Democratic caucus a razor-sharp majority.
This is not without problems. Uniting the entire Democratic caucus on issues will be difficult, given the different views and political needs.
But that would at least remove McConnell and the Senate GOP’s power to block the Biden administration. The president-elect was campaigning in Georgia before the election.
Prior to Trump’s signing of the latest relief package, Biden said he wanted to sign a major bill for stimulus on his first day in office. However, he spoke of the need for Democratic control of the Senate to do so.
“There are people in Congress who are threatening to do everything in their power to thwart our efforts,” he said.
Speaking separately at a campaign event in Georgia earlier this month, Biden said: “Are you ready to vote for two U.S. senators who know how to say the word ‘yes’ and not just ‘no’?”
Some IDP legislators have already indicated that they want the latest emergency relief package to be the last.
Newsweek contacted the Biden transition team and McConnell’s office for comment on the prospect of further stimulation.
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