The Mets had a budget from Trevor Bauer. Now, back to the original plan.
Earlier in the off-season, Steve Cohen and Sandy Alderson declared a desire to keep payroll below the $ 210 million luxury tax threshold. But in Bauer, they saw opportunity – a leading talent at a time when few teams were willing to work at the top of the market. They theorized that if Bauer were his 2020 NL Cy Young version, it would change the Mets track from competitor to something more immediate.
The Mets therefore made the biggest offer – three years at $ 105 million. The average annual value of $ 35 million would have projected them beyond the tax threshold before any other off-season issue was addressed or budgeted for the additional trading deadlines. Bauer received a total of $ 3 million less from the Dodgers to earn: his hometown, a more stable franchise, insurer and a leading yard business.
Without Bauer, the Mets return to their previous concept. So if you were thinking about how the Mets could have spent $ 105 million in total, it would be $ 40 million this year (which would be Bauer’s 2021 Mets salary) or over the threshold, it’s unlikely. They currently have 22 players under major league contracts for $ 162 million. Complete the roster, add the benefits formula and put money up for calls and in-season operations, and the Mets may have $ 25 million dollars before it goes over the threshold. A familiar side: The Mets, with Cohen’s money, should not treat the threshold like a de facto salary cap. If they have to work to improve the team within reason, they have to do it.
A few thoughts on where the team should go next:
1. Talk to Jacob deGrom. Around the Mets, it is understood that deGrom may not be all happy with his contract and that the Mets offered more to someone in Bauer who had never done anything about it. DeGrom was signed in strange circumstances. He was long represented by Brodie Van Wagenen, who became Mets GM after the 2018 season. As a rule, Van Wagenen had to withdraw himself from the negotiations, but if you are deGrom, you know that Van Wagenen was aware of what it would take to conclude an agreement. In the spring training 2019, deGrom signed for $ 137.5 million for five years. But nearly 40 percent have been postponed for 15 years, which has dramatically reduced the current value.
The Mets owe deGrom nothing more. If he got hurt, the Mets would have to pay every dollar. And it was not the Cohen / Alderson administration that signed him. But it is this administration that has struggled with Bauer.
DeGrom can sign up after next season. The Mets can then handle it. But would they dare, we say, to have against the Dodgers, Yankees and about-tons of available cash giants plus others. They now have the exclusivity to keep the second best pitcher in their history in the herd.
If deGrom does not opt-out, his contract has four years left at $ 130 million – reduced by the postponement. How about the Mets offer to tear it up and give it a $ 144 million four-year deferral-free contract with a $ 36 million fifth-year option or a $ 8 million buyout? The total guarantee of $ 152 million is an average value of $ 38 million, which makes deGrom extend beyond Gerrit Cole’s $ 36 million to the largest average ever. Can deGrom try to pursue more? He could, but first it came in handy at the age of 33 and 34 years. The offer is to lose the postponement and now become the best paid player.
2. Try a cost-neutral offer for Lorenzo Cain to the Brewers. The Mets talk to free agent Jackie Bradley Jr. across the center field. He is a winning player who delivers elite defense. But the question remains in 2021 if there is no NL DH. How would the Mets find enough innings for Bradley, Brandon Nimmo, Pete Alonso and Dom Smith below center, left and first?
The same would apply if you replaced Bradley with Cain. Here are the points: The Mets should offer Jeurys Familia, Dellin Betances, Brad Brach and a good but non-elite prospect (think someone like Franklyn Kilome). Familia, Betances and Brach count $ 17.375 million for the tax payroll in 2021, Cain $ 17 million. By doing so, the Mets could have more 2021 budgets to add, for example, a Trevor Rosenthal to Edwin Diaz, Miguel Castro, Aaron Loup, Seth Lugo and Trevor May.
Would the retail market brewers do it to escape Cain’s $ 18 million salary in 2022 when he’s 36? It does not hurt to ask. Cain’s right bat (Bradley is a left), age and the fact that he picked up most of the previous season will make it easier to start him, for example, in 110-120 games and turn the other bats if there are no DH is not, yet his brilliant play defense late if he does not start.
3. Take a starting match. The Mets have improved this season – especially in the middle, especially with Francisco Lindor. But the Braves are probably even better in a stacked NL East and the Dodgers are definitely better overall in the NL. The Mets need to think what, if it works, would narrow the gap.
I have no illusions about James Paxton. He does not stay healthy. He’s all in danger. Unlike any other starter on the market, especially one that can make a deal for one year, leftists have the best stuff. Can you dream of a scenario in which Paxton can bring you to June-ish for Noah Syndergaard’s return, and both are healthy for September / October to join deGrom, Carlos Carrasco and Marcus Stroman? This is a rotation that any short series can win.
4. A No vote on Justin Turner. With Bauer, the Dodgers project is a far-reaching $ 237 million league. Maybe they’ll quit typing now. This would put the clearest landing spot for Turner out of action. That would create an opportunity for Alderson to reverse his worst move in the first term – non-tender Turner to the 2013 season. Turner followed with seven Border Hall of Fame seasons with the Dodgers.
But he will play at age 36 next year and is likely to take a multi-year deal to land (remember Robinson Cano’s salary returns for 2022-23 are to tax the payroll further). The Mets should not dare to let him go at the wrong time and bring him back at the wrong time. JD Davis is the third baseman on paper. However, I’m curious if Luis Guillorme has a Gio Urshela in him. There is no third base force possible with him. But he has good hands on both sides of the ball which I want to see get a bigger chance, especially since the third base is a position that should have available trade candidates in the season if the Mets need to correct that right away.