(CNN) – Regarding the time record of hurricanes from last year, the meteorologists hope another hyperactive time is 2021.
The State University of Colorado (CSU, by its flags in English) published its forecast for the Atlantic Hurricane Time of 2021, and predicts that this year will already have a time limit for the future of the medium.
The CSA predicts that there are 17 towers with numbers, ocher hurricanes and four powerful hurricanes (category 3 or mayor). All of these numbers are available at the time of the release of a typical 12-hour period with six, six hurricanes and three powerful hurricanes.
Without embarrassment, the media are in the process of being updated, says Ken Graham, director of the National Center for Huracanes (NHC, by its English seal).
«We will send you new car tickets to the season. Hecho, in the next few weeks we are going to get this information », Graham Dumbledore.
UPDATED: The measure has been increased … when we mention the average number of storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes mentioned, we usually refer to a recent ‘climate normal’ of thirty years. We used 1981-2010, but now we have 1991-2020, and the scores increased by 12-19%. pic.twitter.com/GhPoLfCK8x
– Brian McNoldy (@BMcNoldy) 18 February 2021
The CSU is one of the many academic institutions, government agencies and private companies that carry out projections of the periodicals.
Although the official forecast of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA, by its seal in English) does not read the final results of Mayo, there is a strong consensus that the Atlantic will be active soon.
Factors that increase the activity of hurricanes
It has a significant caloric content in the eastern Atlantic, while the temperature of the ocean surface is between 1 and 3 degrees Celsius above normal for the April principles.
“The main reasons for estimating the size of the media are the probable probability of a significant event of El Niño and the relative caloric value in the (Atlantic) tropical, but especially in the subtropical Oriental Atlantic”, said Phil Klotzbach, scientific researcher CSU.
The temperatures of the surface of the sea are one of the ingredients necessary to feed the hurricanes, which means that there is a correlation between the temperatures and an active time.
Another big factor is El Niño, o su ausencia.
When El Niño is present, it reduces the activity of the hurricanes in the Atlantic debit to the increase of the vertical cizalladura of the wind. These are the changes in speed and direction of wind that prevent the formation of hurricanes.
The Mayor of Indian Indigenous and Statistical Models at the moment has some probabilities that El Niño will be suspended between August and October.
“The current probabilities of El Niño for NOAA are quite low for August (10%)”, says Klotzbach.
The conditions offered or including the derivatives of La Niña create a more favorable entourage for the development of tropical towers. If we are willing to be an active employer of La Niña, NOAA will be there by the end of all.
So far no one was able to send in the perfect solution, which is not strange.
Source: Center for Climate Change Prediction of the National Meteorological Service.
Graphic: Curt Merrill, CNN.
Se ceviosan cambios en la tempada de huracanes
The timing of the Atlantic hurricanes of 2020 ended with a total of 30 towers in the number, the mayor recorded an annual figure. People living on the shores of the Texas coast of Maine have been affected by at least one tornado with a long-term number. However, at the moment there are some significant changes, including the return of three individual numbers of numbers with number, as well as the complete list of response numbers.
The Committee of Hurricanes of the World Meteorological Organization (OMM) celebrated my passing in its annual meeting to discuss the timing of past hurricanes and to update its operational plans.
Until 2021, if at the time of hurricanes were used all the numbers of the predetermined alphabetical list, the continuation plan would use the Greek alphabet.
“The Greek alphabet will not be used in the future because it creates a distraction in the communication of the alert and torment and potentially confusing,” the OMM announced in March.
The decision would have a separate list of numbers as a response.
The Greek alphabet is replaced by a complementary list of numbers that states the same rules as the main list of number of hurricanes for the time of the Atlantic. This will be used in case the initial list is agote. The numbers of the A to Z, but exclude the letters Q, U, X, Y and Z.
It will allow you to retire and easily replace the list of numbers when you need it.
Source: NHC.
Preparation for the time of hurricane commenza now
About 30% of all Atlantic hurricane hurricanes in the United States. Without embarrassment, it is not necessary that the 17 towers be torn down until it is a time of impact.
«No interest in 30 haystacks (…). If it’s impactful, it’s a temporary occupation, ” Graham Dice.
Therefore, it is important that you prepare to review your evacuation plans and ensure that your evacuation kit is in order and up to date.
The NHC is starting its preparations for the 2021. This year, the center will publish its forecasts for the Atlantic from May 15, and will take place from June 1. The objective is to better serve the communities affected by the tropical systems that follow the principles of time.
In the last 10 years, tropical systems have been ahead of the official hurricane season official, which is June 1st.
The models of cyclonic nightmares
The NHC has also improved its cyclonic nightmare models.
“We have some models of new cyclonic nights that many of us are enthusiastic about,” Graham Dice. “I believe that it will actually increase our capacity to obtain this information for cyclical evacuations based, including more than one hour (” there is now “), he explains.
This is very important because, according to Graham, historically, cyclonic nights are the most deadly parts of tropical systems. In addition, cyclonic nightmare prognosis tends to be the main impetus of evacuation plans on the coast.
“The best part is that, in some cases in which we are very safe, we do not have to publish this information 48 hours ago, as we now have, 60 hours,” said Graham. “It’s important for those in charge of the decision-making process, and it’s time to take these decisions without having to evacuate them.”
The NHC’s official prognosis of hurricanes will be published in May. “We’re going to have to wait a little longer for a sequel,” said Graham.
Source: NHC.