Nicolas Maduro, Venezuela’s president, and Cilia Flores, Venezuela’s first lady, arrive at the National Assembly in Caracas on January 12, 2021.
Photographer: Carlos Becerra / Bloomberg
Photographer: Carlos Becerra / Bloomberg
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, who has long been a bumpy seat warmer, is emerging as a ruthless strongman – deflecting American pressure, purging opponents, empowering his son, wife and trusted help, and dollars to flow so as not to collapse its battered economy.
As a result, the man thought he was the slender face of Chavismo – the movement named after his magnetic predecessor, Hugo Chavez – is now the robust head of what is increasingly called Madurismo.
“Maduro was underestimated, also in Chavismo, and managed to surprise and overcome his enemies inside and out,” said Dimitris Pantoulas, a political analyst at Caracas. “He has placed trusted people in the most influential positions and replaced those who could challenge his power.”
If he interferes outside the intervention, it is an increasingly remote possibility, and Maduro is likely to remain at the helm of affairs for the foreseeable future. As he goes to sleep, the nature of Madurismo becomes clearer. A United Nations report in September last year referred to extrajudicial killings and arbitrary detention, accusing the regime of ‘crimes against humanity’ – a charge the government dismissed.
After difficult elections in December, Maduro snatched the country’s congress – and the last democratic body – from US opposition leader Juan Guaido and nominated right-hand man Jorge Rodriguez as his new leader. Son, Nicolas Jr., and his wife, Cilia Flores, both served as lawmakers.
When Venezuela’s economy shrank for a seventh consecutive year in 2020, the socialist leader promoted unofficial dollarization and eased his grip on the private sector. He allowed more than $ 2 billion, some in the form of an emerging luxury dollar economy, and others who overpaid in the money of the five million people who fled the country, helping him move in the US prohibition on his oil and a blockade of his country’s assets abroad.
Low approval ratings
He did it all with approval ratings of less than 15%. His opponents are rapidly losing steam, with street demonstrations disappearing despite the collapse of basic goods and services in a country that was once among the richest in the world. Oil exports, at all times lower, are increasing again.
Allies, such as Vice President Delcy Rodriguez, Jorge’s sister, are on the rise as challengers, including Diosdado Cabello, are eliminated.
A retired army lieutenant and former vice president who joined Chavez in a failed coup in 1992 led Cabello to the almighty constitutional assembly until Maduro ordered it dissolved last year. Cabello now sits with the largely symbolic role of the second commander of the Socialist Party and its organizer in Congress. Cabello did not respond to a request for comment.
Meanwhile, according to two sources with direct knowledge of the case, Nicolas Jr. was given control over the junior group of the party. Vice President Rodriguez has also been appointed finance minister, a rare dual role.
Gelyn
Others close to Chavez, such as former Education Minister Elias Jaua, have derailed their careers. According to three people with knowledge of the case, Jaua was barred after proposing more democratic methods for decision-making and the election of officials. He is now a university professor. He did not respond to a request for comment.
Maduro is also said to have forcibly ousted Major General Miguel Rodriguez Torres, former justice minister and head of Chavez’s intelligence police. He was jailed in 2018, charged by a military court with treason and incitement to rebel after criticizing the government and creating a rival party with Chavista roots, according to members of his party. He remains in prison in Fuerte Tiuna, the country’s military headquarters.
The ruling party’s legislator, Francisco Torrealba, who met Maduro while they were both working in public transport in the early 1990s, admits that many were skeptical about Maduro after Chavez’s death eight years ago. “Today,” he said, “no one doubts the great skills and political wisdom that the president has been able to achieve.”
Maduro retained key military allies, including Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino, the longest-serving official in his role.
“The military structure will always tend towards everyone who controls the majority of the centers of power,” said Javier Biardeau, a sociologist and professor at the Central University of Venezuela.
Under Maduro, military leaders gained significant government contracts and mining concessions as well as control of ports and the state oil company. Recently, they have taken over gas stations nationwide while U.S. sanctions exploit the country, which has the world’s largest oil reserves, almost without gasoline, leading to endless lines where officials review the evidence of drivers at the pumps.
Foreign supporters
Maduro’s foreign supporters, including China, Iran and Russia, continue to play a key role: help sells millions of barrels of medicated Venezuelan heavy crude under disguise, and sends much-needed fuel and goods in exchange for gold and even agrees to send millions of Sputnik V shots to immunize the nation.
While Guaido maintains global support, the opposition remains divided and devoid of ideas, which weakens its stance as the showdown with Maduro continues and as more opposition politicians are forced into exile, jailed or legally ousted.
Although previous attempts to negotiate a political end to the crisis have failed, part of the opposition hopes to resume talks ahead of the municipal and state elections this year.
The political change in the US can also help Maduro. Donald Trump singled out Venezuela, and its alliance with Cuba and Nicaragua, for pressure. President Joe Biden is expected to seek housing in Cuba. And while his top assistants have made it clear that they view Maduro as a dictator, they have also indicated that they want interest in amending some sanctions.