Two years ago, the Trump administration took a courageous stance when it declared that it no longer recognized Nicolas Maduro as the legitimate president of Venezuela.
Instead, the US – followed by more than a dozen countries, including the European Union – supported Juan Guaido, a little-known opposition leader, as the interim leader of the South American country.
This decision caused massive upheaval as thousands of Venezuelans flocked to the streets of Caracas demanding Maduro’s resignation.
But the expected fall of grace from the socialist leader never really took place, and two years later Maduro remained trapped inside the presidential palace, facing a severe humanitarian crisis and a dizzying economic decline.
MADURO’S GRIP TREK AS Venezuelan SOCIALISM CONTROL OF ONE KEY DEFANT
Evan Ellis, research professor for Latin American students at the US Army War College’s Institute for Strategic Studies, told Fox News that Maduro’s grip on Venezuela was never completely released, because although few supported the real leader, many people had long been complicit in the criminal activities that have become the lifeblood of the regime. ‘
Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaido speaks at a press conference in Caracas, Venezuela, on Saturday, December 5, 2020, a day before the parliamentary elections. (AP Photo / Matias Delacroix)
“Guaido and his team and the Trump administration deserve credit for coordinating an extensive international diplomatic effort under extraordinary circumstances, which ultimately led to 57 countries across Latin America, Europe and elsewhere recognizing its legitimacy,” said Ellis. “Guaido and his government also deserve extraordinary credit for, without control of Venezuelan territory or resources, not only being involved within Venezuela against constant implicit and explicit threats by the Maduro regime, but coordinating a comprehensive international diplomacy.”
Earlier this year, Maduro gained an even tighter grip on power – resuming control of the Venezuelan Congress, the only wing he did not dominate after the December election. The vote was largely repulsed by the opposition and condemned as a mockery.
Some analysts believe that the loss by the opposition highlights the lack of agreement Guiado had by calling on an exhausted and disappointed Venezuelan majority.
Despite initial hopes by US officials and anti-Maduro activists that the military top buyer would gradually abandon their loyalty to the socialist leader, he maintained a firm grip on the military.
DAUGHTER OF CITGO 6 EXECUTIVE PRISON IN VENEZUELA CALL ON TRUMP TO BRING ‘POLITICAL PRISONERS’
Sources in Venezuela tell Fox News that Maduro is using the military to control the food distribution and some imports and uses, which the starving population is all the more adhering to the socialist mandate.
“The (Trump) administration spoke tough, but was never backed by a robust plan. There was this false belief that the Venezuelan government would fall if we blew up and puffed, we would actually have a strategy and more sustained Needed commitments. ” argues Brett Bruen, a former director of the White House for Global Commitments. “Maduro has strengthened his grip on power over the past year. COVID-19 has helped. He has been able to justify repressive measures as serving public health. Russia and China have continued to strengthen their position while the West has been distracted by the pandemic.”
A government supporter known as ‘Caperucita’, or Little Red Riding Hood, holds a photo of late Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez. (AP Photo / Matias Delacroix)
Although the US has maintained a much more fervent attitude towards the ‘illegal’ leader, there are some signs that the backlash under Washington’s leadership may be beginning to shatter.
In a statement last week, the EU promised to continue its “involvement” with opposition leader Guaido, not referring to him as the “interim president” as before. An EU official has insisted to the Associated Press that there is no change in the attitude of the union
Meanwhile, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said the United States still viewed the Maduro regime as “illegal” and “would not recognize it or its statements.”
“President Guaidó and the (old) National Assembly are the only democratic representatives of the Venezuelan people recognized by the international community, and they must be freed from Maduro’s harassment, threats, persecution and other abuses,” he said.
The US, the EU and the Lima Group, a multilateral body set up to oversee a peaceful Venezuelan transition, have jointly broadcast calls for new, democratic elections in Venezuela.
POMPEO JUDGES ‘WRONG’ REPLACEMENTS OF ‘CITGO 6’ IN VENEZUELA
But now, with a seemingly broken opposition, Maduro is free to pursue so-called “hate” charges against those considered government dissidents, raising even more concerns that the challenging voices and truth to power in the authoritarian country will be further enlightened. .
According to an analyst in Caracas, who asked for anonymity for security reasons, the huge economic sanctions that the United States has piled up by the Maduro regime in recent years have been useful – but their effectiveness has diminished.
“Sanctions on PDVSA and the control of Venezuelan government assets in the US to the Guaidó government have strangled the Maduro regime financially, but it was not enough,” the source explained. “What is missing is a coordinated effort between the Trump administration and the rest of the international community involved. The European Union has decided not to pursue a ‘maximum pressure’ strategy, but to issue only personal sanctions. “Maduro is finally finding ways to evade the crippling US sanctions.”
Venezuela’s President Nicolas Maduro, Venezuela’s Vice President Tareck El Aissami and Cilia Flores take part in a military exercise at the Fuerte Tiuna military base in Caracas, Venezuela 24 February 2018. REUTERS / Marco Bello – RC17D57B06D0
A U.S. oil manager working in the hospitable country also told Fox News that sanctions were initially effective, with oil production from about 1.2 million barrels to the average 400k level we currently see.
‘Sanctions, however, are a wasteful asset’, and this has had unintended consequences, and this is the most urgent increase in illegal mining and drug trafficking, which is now responsible for the majority of money entering the country and creating local instability, ‘ explain the informed. . “Besides, it is possible for other foreign actors to find ways to evade sanctions and ultimately benefit from these sanctions.”
One U.S. executive, who was not authorized to speak on the record, argued that the U.S. might “overestimate” the credibility and strength of the opposition with the Venezuelan opposition, as well as Maduro’s ability to “lead the army on its own.” to keep “. lace. ‘
Several sources stressed that the joint support of Russia, China, Iran, Turkey and Cuba proved enough to keep Maduro going.
US UNDERTAKES CUBA STATE SPONSORS OF TERRORISM
The onslaught of the coronavirus pandemic paved the way for Maduro to harden his grip on the increasingly impoverished nation through forced lock-ups and the restriction of movement.
Officially, the country has registered just over 1,000 deaths caused by the global pandemic – but most experts claim that the figure is much higher due to the limited health resources and lack of testing.
“The humanitarian situation is still critical and is getting worse. The minimum wage is now $ 1.10 per month. COVID-19 has been slowing down migration for a while, but is now starting again,” said one source in Caracas. “UN agencies estimate that 2.4 million Venezuelans will flee the country by 2021, even with COVID-19 still lurking. Politics, the opposition is in disarray again, with several factions fighting over the fight against Maduro. . “
Houston, Texas, USA – February 23, 2014: Venezuelan citizens in Houston protest against the Venezuelan government and its alleged anti-democratic policies.
Johan Obdola, president of the Canada-based Global Organization for Intelligence (IOSI), emphasized that 90% of the population lives in a critical state of survival.
“[About] 60% of Venezuelans are registered with severe cases of malnutrition and mental health issues. In cities and towns of Venezuela, it is more critical where the majority of the population is normal to eat only rice, butter or pasta in a week, “he claimed.” The scenario is that the country’s devastated economy is now mainly moving money coming from drug trafficking. Maduro allowed the military sector to sell oil in Venezuela. They also benefit from human trafficking and sexual exploitation of women as well as children. ‘
CLICK HERE TO GET THE FOX NEWS APP
Ellis, however, stressed that Maduro’s government in fact controls very little outside Caracas.
“Maduro himself has little power; his survival reflects that those in his army and government with the power to act are adequately implicated in years of corruption by the Chavista system,” he said. “At the moment, they fear the consequences of trying to replace him with a democratic government – or a more capable authoritarian one – more than they fear the consequences of his bad policies.”
It remains to be seen whether the incoming Biden administration will drastically change the current approach.
“It does not work. It is nice to see that they have problems and prices over their heads, but that is it,” added Caesar Oporeza, a political commentator for Caracas. “The only solution is with deadly violence. They are criminals. Period.”