Nearly six months after major protests in the streets over a tumultuous presidential election with relentless, violent repression by his riot police, Belarussian autocrat Alexander Lukashenko still holds on to power, looking more determined than ever to step in. to dominate its standoff with much of the country’s population.
A rally this week in which Lukashenko initially promised to make real concessions and perhaps even negotiate a route out of power is expected to be a loyal meeting that will let the president’s plan to stay at the helm imprint. . The so-called All Belarusian People’s Assembly, scheduled for Thursday, is unlikely to result in any real political change, observers say.
“Lukashenko has apparently decided that he has already won and can now return some of his promises,” said political analyst Artyom Shraibman in Minsk. ‘For now, it looks more like a routine gathering of loyalists. But we cannot rule out the possibility that Russia will insist on something more. ‘
At the height of the protests in August last year, Lukashenko’s days were numbered as hundreds of thousands of protesters across the country demanded new elections, supporting the idea of a transitional government led by Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, the wife of a prisoner of war. presidential prison sentence that opposed Lukashenko in the vote.
Lukashenko dismissed the immediate threat of violence, arrests and harassment of protest organizers, and received ruthless support from the Kremlin, who apparently believes he is a better option than surrendering to the power of the street.
After a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Lukashenko said he would continue with constitutional reform to ensure a smooth transition to a parliamentary system of government, but after months of semi-conciliatory rhetoric, he returned a few weeks to form, threatening a new wave of violence.
“Many have already understood that we will act firmly to defend the country. And the rest will understand … I will defend the country whatever it costs me, whether it is on a tank or with a machine gun in my hands, ‘he said during a government meeting last week. A recording was also leaked in which a deputy interior minister talks about building a prison camp for protesters.
The riot police and KGB, which remained loyal to Lukashenko, have launched a scorched earth policy against all those involved in organizing protests. Hundreds of people remain in jail as thousands leave the country, with many politically active Belarusians currently based in Warsaw or Vilnius. The big weekly gatherings of the fall have become a thing of the past, with only smaller, local protest outbursts.
‘The dynamics have changed since September and October, but we are still seeing the system rot. We are trying to stimulate this process and build channels to increase the number of deviations, ”said Franak Viačorka, an adviser to Tikhanovskaya.
But the inner circle around Lukashenko proved loyal and willing to crack down on protesters and journalists over the gloomy events. Dozens of Belarusian journalists were targeted by authorities, while foreign journalists were largely denied accreditation.
Tut.by, the largest independent Belarusian news portal, has been stripped of its legal status as a media store, while one of its journalists, Katerina Borisevich, has been in jail since November. She is being jailed for the alleged crime of leaking medical data, after revealing that a protester killed by regime-linked thugs was not drunk at the time, as the official version claims.
“It sounds like a theater of the absurd, but it’s actually happening to us,” said Maryna Zolatava, editor-in-chief of Tut.by.
In the months since her departure from Belarus, Tikhanovskaya has met numerous Western politicians and is considered the legal leader of the country. She has a “February 7”day of international solidarityWith Belarus, but over time she has struggled to maintain influence within the country. Most of the leaders of the “coordinating council” she set up to oversee a transfer of power were sent to prison or forced to flee.
While Tikhanovskaya has the support of most of the EU, it does not yet appear that Moscow is ready to drop its troublesome ally Lukashenko. The Kremlin is wary of revolutionary change, especially now facing its own wave of protests after the return to Russia of Alexei Navalny, and has accused the West of interfering in Belarusian affairs by embracing Tikhanovskaya.
“We are trying to show that the Coordinating Council is still a better option for Russia and is fighting the fear of Moscow. We are trying to explain that the situation is not about geopolitics, but unfortunately it is more about geopolitics month after month, ”Viačorka said.