Liverpool appear to be out of the Premier League title race. Realistically, they will not defend their crown for 2019-20 *. Instead, they are in a battle to finish top four and earn a place in next season’s Champions League, and it will be hard to name their favorites.
While fans will always be hoping for the miraculous hope, Liverpool are likely to end the season with 66 to 76 points. With the revival of Manchester City and the appearance of Manchester United annoyingly sustainable, even the top spot will not put them in the title mix, and no matter how you break things down, the Reds seem more likely to finish fifth or sixth as first or second.
Liverpool’s form since the restart of 2019-20
We will start looking at the results since the restart of the 2019-20 season. Since then, the Reds have played 28 league games. They won 14, drew nine, lost five. That is a record of 1.82 points per game – the fourth best in the league, barely behind the third best Tottenham. During a 38-game season, it is a pace of 69 points, most fourth to sixth place.
With a lower result for all the leading teams since the restart, a pace of 69 points since then is the Reds fourth best in the league and millimeters of third. Not great, and hardly challenging, but not the end of the world. A step back, but if recent poor results are not the new normal, it is a step back that this record group still has to get into the Champions League next season and with that can strengthen the chance, heal and go again.
By comparison, Tottenham have a pace of 1.89 points since the restart, good for about 72 points per season. In front of them is Manchester United. Something of a laugh for many before the break, and sometimes even after, when they bombed out of the Champions League in December, their league form has been legally challenging since the restart – a 2.18 points per game pace that gives them 83 points will provide. over a season.
It is therefore not surprising that Manchester City are first – but not much, with a 2.21 points per game worth 84 points over a season. On the other hand and behind Liverpool, the surprising Southampton are fifth at a 1.74-point rate for 66 points per season, and then Everton, Chelsea and Leicester are all at a 64-point season.
If we look at form since the restart of 2019-20, we give:
- Manchester City on course for 84 marks
- Manchster United on course for 83 marks
- Tottenham on course for 72 marks
- Liverpool on course for 69 marks
Liverpool’s form in the 2020-21 season
If we only look at this season on its own, the Reds have a pace of 68 points – a number that is weighed by the recent form, and which is also confirmed before the recent run of bad results, Jürgen Klopp’s team has improved in their stumbling block 2019-2020 start over. Before the last five games, Liverpool have played well enough to nail a league in a strange season.
Whether you combine their last five games with the first 14 or look back at the 2019-20 restart, you get much the same numbers: 68 or 69 points. It could simply be that without the fans, and after the Champions League and Premier League titles, it is the inevitable relapse of a tired group plagued by injuries.
However, unlike when you return to the restart, just 68 or 69 points behind the rest of the league, it does not matter – it is also not just a sixth place.
Just look at the results for this season:
- Manchester City is on course for 80 marks
- Manchester United is on course for 80 marks
- Leicester city is on course for 76 marks
- Everton is on course for 72 marks
- Tottenham is on course for 70 marks.
Behind the five and Liverpool in sixth place, Chelsea and Southampton rather dropped out when they omitted the 2019-20 restart, while West Ham pushed their way to the mix.
Liverpool’s form in the last ten games
Finally, the recent form table. Looking at the last ten games says the same thing – although West Ham are swapping Tottenham’s place just outside the Champions League places, and City are showing signs of being in top form again. In the last ten games, City have been at their best again and at a pace of 99 points. Liverpool are sixth and fit with 65 points.
Although I’ve been playing for half a season, the question is where teams would end up if they kept the rest of the current pace.
Project recent form during the rest of the season:
- Manchester City is on course for 90 marks
- Manchester United is on course for 86 marks
- Leicester city is on course for 76 marks
- Everton is on course for 72 marks
Outside of the top four, Liverpool and West Ham would both finish at 66 based on recent form and points they have earned so far, while Tottenham would finish at 65.
Liverpool’s probably best scenario
Since it’s a Liverpool website, we’ll also look at what happens if the Reds rediscover their pre-Christmas 2020-21 form – from when they play Tottenham. If they do, they earn another 42 points and, among the 34 they have earned so far, they end up with the 76 points mentioned at the beginning. That would be good for third alongside Leicester in the current form. And that, a rediscovery of their form before Christmas, probably seems the best case scenario.
It probably also tells us where to expect the Reds to finish the season: with an upper limit of 76 points and a third-place finish, a lower limit of 66 points, and the most likely to finish with about 68 or 69 points. Meanwhile, it looks like the league’s fourth place is likely to earn between 69 and 72 points, and that’s probably not confidence.
However difficult it may seem, it would be foolish to write off Jürgen Klopp and this group. Realistically, they are now out of the title race *. They will not defend their crown for 2019-20. But it seems more reasonable to hold on to the hope that they can at least rediscover their form before Christmas and thus comfortably achieve a fourth place.
* I will still start every game with Tottenham next week and think Liverpool can win, and if they do, that means 91 points and will probably beat City.