Lebanon: the spectrum of civil conflict threatens as economic collapse gives way to violence

Lebanon: the spectrum of civil conflict threatens as economic collapse gives way to violence

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The infernal scenes threaten to make a turn.

Lebanon’s officials and politicians are increasingly raising fears of internal conflict. It comes just 31 years after the end of the country’s gruesome 15-year civil war. The black chapter was brought to an end by a modus vivendi that, according to critics, systematized the corruption of the government, which culminated in a financial collapse that brought Lebanon back to the brink.

In a statement to CNN this week, Home Secretary Mohammed Fahmi said there was a greater likelihood of ‘security breaches such as explosions and assassinations’ in the country.

The fear is reflected by many well-known politicians who quote conversations with intelligence agents. In a televised speech on Wednesday, Iran-backed Hezbollah secretary general Hassan Nasrallah also warned of civil war, drawing a bleak forecast of the security situation and calling on the country’s broken political class to promote financial decline.

But in the streets of Lebanon, the same political elite is overwhelmingly unpopular. Even ardent supporters of mainstream parties are calling for a reform of the country’s confessional system for powers that sit according to sectarian groups. MPs publicly acknowledge their failures, and some of them say they should resign as well. Left-wing groups, such as the Communist Party, have called for an ‘escalation’ in the country’s popular uprising, which began in October 2019 with the aim of overthrowing the ruling class.

President Michel Aoun (L) will meet with designated Prime Minister Saad Hariri in the presidential palace on March 18.
But there is little or no agreement on the future of government in the country. A cabinet formation process has been at a standstill for four months due to disputes between Prime Minister Saad Hariri and President Michel Aoun. Hariri has promised that his future government will stop the collapse of Lebanon and reconnect with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which halted negotiations with the government over a bailout last year.
But Hariri faces the exhausting task of instituting economic reforms at a time when his popular mandate has declined sharply. The young parties that have emerged in recent years in an effort to replace the elite also apparently do not have the political influence needed to dispel the status quo.
This leadership crisis has exacerbated Lebanon’s financial woes on a spectacular scale. In its Fall 2020 report, the World Bank described Lebanon’s economic depression as ‘deliberate’.

The report sets out exactly what this means: a rapid slowdown in economic growth, a currency, small depositors bearing the bulk of economic losses, an astonishing depletion of the country’s resources, including human capital, and ‘ a poverty rate that exceeds 50% in 2021. .

A woman and her daughter beg on March 16, 2021 in the commercial Hamra Street in Beirut. Tuesday, March 16, 2021. More than half of the population now lives in poverty.
An army officer repulsed protesters who wanted to break down a bank door during a protest and demanded that local banks allow people to withdraw their money on 26 February.

The disaster could have been largely avoided, says the World Bank. To the shock of even the most cynical observers, the leaders of Lebanon have refrained from instituting policies that could mitigate the financial decline.

The state has done little to nothing to alleviate poverty. Formal capital controls have not been implemented, almost a year and a half after banks began restricting cash withdrawals to deposits on a discretionary basis. The practice fueled the capital flight of the super-rich, while the workers and middle classes helplessly watched as their deposits lost most of their real value.

The country also does not have an official exchange rate platform, leaving the declining lira to the shadow of black markets and the perpetual possibility of currency manipulation.

Buildings threaten in darkness during an eclipse in Beirut on July 5, 2020.

The economic outlook is darkening almost daily. The country’s black market currency has now lost 90% of its October 2019 value. As Lebanon burns through its foreign reserves, Energy Minister Raymond Ghajar raised the possibility of 24/7 power outages during a press conference this month, plunging the country into ‘total darkness’.

The food, fuel and medicine subsidies that served as the country’s lifeboat may also disappear soon. This week, Prime Minister Hassan Diab said Lebanon would reduce subsidies, adding that most of them could only be maintained until June.

The loss of subsidies could be the watershed moment that Lebanon threatens to lead to Venezuela-like scenarios, which will exacerbate existing food, fuel and medical shortages.

Families living on a minimum wage – now less than $ 50 a month – cannot afford basic food products as inflation soars. Security forces already tense, facing the frustrations of its newly impoverished wealth, will have to overcome the rising crime rates and the possibility of long-running political tensions.

The only glimmer of hope is the possibility of an impending political resolution that in turn yields an effective and efficient government. But to most of those familiar with the political elite’s largely miserable history, it seems like a pipe dream. If there is no leadership, the economy can continue to engulf the unknown.

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