According to an internal document of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense reviewed by Axios, Russia has held military exercises near commercial shipping lanes in the Black Sea at the last minute, threatening to strangle Ukraine’s economy.
Why it matters: With the eyes of the world over the massive build-up of troops in eastern Ukraine, the leaked memo shows that Russian forces are increasing their presence on all sides of the Ukrainian border.
Zoom in: Russia on Friday announced its intention to block foreign ships in parts of the Black Sea from military exercises until October, an escalation condemned by a State Department spokesman as an example of Moscow’s ongoing campaign to undermine Ukraine and destabilize. “
- Just days earlier, the Pentagon had rejected plans to send two US warships to the Black Sea, according to Reuters. An explanation was not provided.
- The leaked Ukrainian document estimates that the total area of Russian military exercises covers 27% of the Black Sea, a part that has gradually crept up in a sign of efforts to establish de facto control over international waters.
- According to Ukraine, the Russians also use civilian infrastructure for military purposes. The document states that Russia installed radars on natural gas platforms after which Ukraine seized after the annexation of Crimea in 2014.
Between the lines: Radar systems on civilian infrastructure could enable the Russian military to establish awareness and presence in areas where it should not be.
- Just this month, Russian state media accused Poland of ‘challenging’ activities near the controversial and nearly completed Nord Stream 2 pipeline in the Baltic Sea.
- A US official who is closely monitoring this development said ‘the armament of energy infrastructure in the Black Sea should be a warning sign of what is to come’ as Nord Stream 2, which would bypass Ukraine and Russian gas directly to Europe liver, to its right comes the Baltic Sea.
- Although Biden has said he opposes Nord Stream 2, he is unlikely to sanction European allies like Germany for halting its final construction.
The whole picture: Much of the concern about Russia’s aggression in recent weeks has not been focused on its activities in the Black Sea, but on the border with eastern Ukraine, where the top diplomat of the European Union claims that more than 150,000 troops have now gathered. has.
- The leaked document shows that Russian forces are increasing their presence on all sides of the Ukrainian border with units that possess a wide range of capabilities, including many that suggest more sinister intentions than a simple display of power.
- The document suggests that Russia’s actions could be designed to draw attention to domestic problems ahead of the September legislative elections, or to thwart NATO exercises and bully Ukraine into halting its ‘positive political development’.
- But it also finds there is a ‘high probability’ that Russia may provoke Ukrainian troops to create a pretext for a military invasion, as in Georgia in 2008.