MOSCOW (AP) – At least they are not technically not leaders. But in political reality, the powerful tenure of China, Xi Jinping, and Vladimir Putin of Russia this week looks much deeper into the 21st century – even as the two superpowers whose fate they rule are expanding more influence over the past year.
What’s more, as they consolidate political control at home, sometimes with harsh measures, they work together more substantively than ever in a growing challenge for the West and the world’s other superpower, the United States, which elects its leader every four years.
This week, Putin signed a law allowing him to hold power until 2036. The 68-year-old Russian president, who has been in power for more than two decades – longer than any other leader in the Kremlin since Soviet dictator Joseph Stalin – has insisted. last year by a constitutional vote allowing him to run again in 2024 when his current six-year term ends. He oversees a systematic suppression of differences of opinion.
In China, Xi, who came to power in 2012, imposed even stricter control on the strictly oppressive political scene, and as one of the most powerful leaders of his country in the seven decades of the Communist Party government, which began with Mao Zedong’s often brutal government, begins. . Under Xi, the government gathered intellectuals, legal activists and other voices, captured or silenced, cracked down on the Hong Kong opposition and used security forces to suppress calls for minority rights in Xinjiang, Tibet and Inner Mongolia.
Xi eliminated opponents, locked up critics and tightened the party’s control over information. A continuous crackdown on corruption has gained popular support, while keeping potential competitors in line as well.
His steady consolidation of power led to the lifting of the term restrictions on the Chinese presidency in 2018, which demolished a convention the party instituted to repeat the abuse of Mao’s one-man government. Xi further telegraphed his intention to remain in power by breaking away from tradition and not giving a preferred successor. One who seemed eager to take on the role, Sun Zhengcai, was brought down in 2017 and sentenced to life in prison on charges of corruption.
And in Russia, Putin’s most outspoken critic, Alexei Navalny, was arrested in January on his return from Germany, where he spent five months recovering from a poisoning of the nerve agent he blames on the Kremlin – an accusation that denied by the Russian authorities. In February, Navalny was sentenced to 2 years in prison.
Putin and Xi both embraced the nationalist sentiment by challenging the West. Russia’s 2014 annexation of Ukrainian Crimea has pushed Putin’s approval rates to nearly 90% before easing amid economic woes and unpopular pension reform.
But the impact of Putin and Xi’s continued retention of power hardly ends with their countries. It ripples in the geopolitical balance of power in countless ways.
As Moscow’s relations with the West sank after the Cold War amid accusations of interference in elections and burglary attacks, Putin increasingly sought to strengthen ties with China. And although China has so far avoided a showdown with the West like Russia’s, it comes under increasing pressure from Washington and its allies over Beijing’s human rights record in Xinjiang, Hong Kong and the South China Sea.
U.S. President Joe Biden has taken an increasingly difficult line with both leaders, recently calling Putin a “killer” and that his top national security assistants have lost China to a number of issues. Such approaches suggest that Moscow and Beijing will have incentives to build an even stronger alliance.
Like their nations, the two leaders also cultivated a closer relationship.
Putin and Xi have developed strong personal ties to strengthen a ‘strategic partnership’ between the two former communist rivals as they compete with the West for influence. And although Moscow and Beijing have in the past rejected the possibility of concluding a military alliance, Putin said last autumn that such a prospect could not be completely ruled out.
While both Putin and Xi are each firmly entrenched, there are still numerous challenges. The pandemic was a major challenge for both rulers, and they took an equally cautious approach when it struck.
Putin responded last spring by instituting a comprehensive six-week shutdown that severely hurt the already weak Russian economy. Its approval rating drops to a historic low of 59%. Later, the government eased restrictions and pushed away new closures, which helped reduce economic damage and increase Putin’s onslaught.
Xi remained out of the public eye during the first uncertain weeks, possibly fearing that opponents might give him a chance to drop him. In the end, China managed the pandemic better than many other places, which improved Xi’s position as leader.
Xi must also figure out how to satisfy ambitious young politicians who can see their careers stimulated by his long term. And he must demonstrate that his extensive rule will not lead to the excessive Mao years, especially the disastrous and deeply traumatic cultural revolution of 1966-76.
‘Xi must deal with an essential paradox. He honors Mao and builds the same cult of personality and centrality of the party, ”said Daniel Blumenthal, director of Asian Studies at the American Enterprise Institute. ‘But he knows that his people fear and abhor Maoism, so he must also pretend that he is not Mao. For now, he is an undisputed strong leader, dealing with cracks and crevices in the party and society through Mao-style campaigns and purges. ‘
Putin faces even more frightening challenges. The Russian economy is a fraction of China’s, and its overwhelming dependence on oil and gas and other commodity exports makes it vulnerable to market fluctuations. Western economic and financial sanctions have reduced Moscow’s access to Western technologies and capital markets, slowing the economy and hampering modernization efforts. Stagnant living standards and declining incomes have fueled growing discontent.
Russia’s increasingly close ties with China are part of its strategy to compensate for Western sanctions. Chinese companies have provided replacements for the lack of Western technology, helped with major infrastructure projects such as energy supply to the Crimea and channeled cash flows to ease the burden of sanctions on tycoons linked to the Kremlin.
“Beijing has helped Moscow, at least to some extent, withstand the pressure of the US and the EU,” Alexander Gabuev, the top Chinese expert at the Carnegie Moscow Center, wrote in a recent analysis. “This assistance has also enabled Moscow to become assertive elsewhere in the world, from presence in the Middle East and Africa to supporting the Venezuelan government and interfering in American elections.”
Military cooperation remains a high limit. As U.S. pressure increased, Russia moved to expand military ties with China. Their armed forces held a series of joint exercises, and Putin noted that Russia had provided China with cutting-edge military technologies.
But a complete alliance – what is the joint military power of Xi’s and Putin’s grip on their nations? Such a thing seems less abstract when one considers the increasingly close relationship between the two long-term leaders.
“We do not need it,” Putin said in October. “But theoretically it is quite possible to imagine it.”
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Ken Moritsugu, the Greater China news director of The Associated Press, reported from Beijing.