Southern California is ready to reopen a broader part of its economy within a few days. But, as was often the case in the COVID-19 pandemic, the pace will be uneven – some provinces are moving faster forward than others.
In the long run, this is unlikely to be a major problem, especially as newly confirmed infections continue to decline and more Californians are vaccinated. But in the short term, a patchwork quilt could be seen where three of the state’s major urban provinces – Los Angeles, Orange and San Bernardino – could begin a wider reopening ahead of neighboring Ventura, Riverside and San Diego.
The first phase
According to state data released Tuesday, Los Angeles, Orange and San Bernardino provinces recorded coronavirus rates low enough to position themselves to escape the strictest, or purple, level of California’s four-level reopening road map.
However, the timing of when they can officially advance to the less restricted red category depends on how quickly suppliers give vaccines to those living in California’s most disadvantaged areas.
In an effort to address inequality in vaccine administration, California is now devoting 40% of its available inventory to residents in targeted communities – those in the lowest quartile of a socio-economic measurement instrument called the California Healthy Places Index.
Once 2 million doses have been distributed in those areas, the state will relax the criteria for provinces to move from the press to the red level.
As it stands now, provinces need to have an adjusted rate at or below 7.0 new cases of coronavirus per 100,000 people to move into the red level. When the state achieves its dose target of 2 million, provinces with a case rate of up to 10 new cases per day per 100,000 people will be eligible to continue.
According to the latest available state data, California has about 73,000 doses less than 2 million, which means the target is already within reach.
The state consistently receives more than 1 million total vaccine doses per week. And officials hope supplies will gradually increase as the transportation of vaccines manufactured by Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna increases and the single-dose Johnson & Johnson vaccine arrives.
In the current reopening framework, the provinces of LA, Orange and San Bernardino would not be able to progress from the press level this week. However, as all three have recorded adjusted case numbers of less than 10 new cases of coronavirus per 100,000 people per day over the past two weeks, it appears they will be allowed to progress to the less restrictive category shortly after the state removes its vaccination barrier .
The last state release of the average coronavirus rate, which is adjusted based on the number of tests performed in a particular country, was 5.2 in LA, 6.0 in Orange County and 6.7 in San Bernardino.
Next steps
Once the goal of reaching 2 million doses in low-income communities is reached, the California Department of Public Health will quickly proceed with redistributions in the province. They will be ‘announced the next day and will then take effect the next day’, the agency said in an email on Monday.
“Our understanding is that within 48 hours of the state announcing that the vaccine vaccination has been reached, LA County, along with other counties with qualifying cases, will move into the red level,” the LA County Public Health Director said. , Barbara Ferrer, said Tuesday.
So by the time the state publishes its routine level report next Tuesday – the day of the week allocations are announced – the new, relaxed threshold value should already exist, enabling LA, Orange, San Bernardino and a few other provinces to further reopen their economies.
However, the provinces of Riverside, San Diego, Santa Barbara and Ventura will need another week to move into the red level. The most recent adjusted state list rates were 8.3 for Riverside County, 8.8 for San Diego County, 9.7 for Santa Barbara County, and 9.1 for Ventura County. To leave the press level, you must leave two consecutive weeks of fall rates below 10.
What’s in the red means
Provinces in the red level can reopen indoor restaurant and movie theaters with 25% capacity or up to 100 people, whichever is less. Personal classes may also be resumed for students in grades seven to 12.
Indoor gyms and dance and yoga studios have a capacity of 10%. Museums, zoos and aquariums can open indoor activities with a capacity of 25%, and non-essential shops and libraries can open at a capacity of 50%, compared to 25%.
Government officials also announced last week that amusement parks would be eligible to reopen, with restrictions, in the red-light counties from April 1 – meaning attractions like Disneyland, Universal Studios, Knott’s Berry Farm and Six Flags Magic Mountain Southern California has long been closed to just a few weeks to welcome visitors again.
Capacity will be limited to 15% for parks in provinces that are in the red level, and the cap will increase to 25% once a province is to orange, and 35% when it reaches the lowest level, yellow. Attendance will be limited to visitors in the state.
However, the rules of the state only serve as a measure. Provinces have the power to impose additional restrictions, which means that it is not obvious that a region will reopen immediately after it meets the state’s requirements.
Sisson writes for the San Diego Union Tribune.