Kremlin misleads Navalny’s decision to fight, even from prison

Photographer: Kirill Kudryavtsev / AFP / Getty Images

Russian officials were convinced that opposition leader Alexey Navalny would not return.

They warned that upon arrival he would go to jail and gradually take up the threats of new sins, amid allegations of stealing donations from supporters to work for American intelligence. Even fellow Kremlin critics told the 44-year-old activist it was too dangerous to return from Berlin, where he had recovered from a nerve agent attack he and Western capitals blamed on President Vladimir Putin.

But Navalny, convinced that he could only remain a political force from within the country, ignored their advice.

His dramatic return defended the Kremlin. Tensions are unwelcome in a year that was supposed to regain control of the election in the fall, as Russia recovers from the pandemic after Putin laid the groundwork to extend his rule to 2036.

“Navalny’s plan is very simple – to become Putin’s No. 1 headache and inspire political activism with his courage,” said Fyodor Krasheninnikov, a political consultant close to the Kremlin critic. “If he had decided not to come back, it would have been a victory for Putin.”

Supporters say that strategy can work, even if Navalny is jailed, which they expect. The Russian leader’s biggest opponent is betting that he can bring enough supporters to the streets this year to show that they will not be intimidated. At the same time, he is counting on a West that was just raised by the inauguration of US President Joe Biden to increase outside pressure on the Kremlin.

This is a risky venture.

Lang sin

According to two people close to the leadership, the Kremlin has now decided to keep Navalny in jail for several years or longer, according to previous practice of giving him imprisonment of at most a few weeks at a time. of anonymity to discuss matters that are not public. He could get as many as 3.5 years during a trial scheduled for Feb. 2, with another case that could add another 10.

The people said the more difficult line comes from the Kremlin’s view that Navalny is working on behalf of Western governments – a charge he denies. At the same time, the ongoing protests in Belarus, despite Russian brutal strongman Alexander Lukashenko’s brutal attempts to suppress them, have raised fears of public protests. Authorities hope that Navalny’s very personal movement will lose direction once he’s in jail.

Read more: Putin, poison and the importance of Alexey Navalny: QuickTake

So far this has not happened. A a new video he and his team released on YouTube on Tuesday, exposing a large Black Palace that they believe belongs to Putin, has been viewed more than 40 million times in the first two days, a record for his group. The Kremlin calls the demands of the film untrue.

“They have provoked a completely unnecessary crisis with serious local and international consequences,” said Gleb Pavlovsky, a political consultant who worked for the presidential government in the early 2000s. “The Kremlin is now playing on Navalny’s turf.”

The activist and his allies hope that his case will quell public discontent amid a 4% drop in real income and the closure of the coronavirus, which could put Putin’s onslaught on record at a lower stage last year. They focus on the parliamentary election in September as an opportunity to give a sign of the breadth of popular unhappiness.

A Levada Center poll last fall found that 20% of Russians said they approved of Navalny’s work, despite uniform negative coverage of him in the state media. Half said they disapprove.

Putin Support

“There will be no quick steps, but the erosion of the regime will certainly accelerate,” Krasheninnikov said. “This stressful situation will force Putin and his circle to make mistakes.”

Critics of the Kremlin have, of course, predicted for years that the impending collapse of Putin’s support would be disappointing. Polls show that support for him is still strong.

An early test for opponents comes Saturday, when Navalny’s allies are planning rallies in dozens of cities. Authorities have already warned that they will not grant permission and have detained at least one organizer while blocking the sites promoting the events.

Fade appeal?

Putin’s popularity declined from its peak

Source: Levada Center

While confrontation with Navalny carries the risks of capturing the anger of the people over Putin’s continued government, it also holds the potential price of breaking the Kremlin’s most stubborn opposition movement. The last major challenge – which led to Putin’s imprisonment in 2003 by billionaire Mikhail Khodorkovsky over Western protests – is that he has rejected the disregard for his power.

“In Russia, it is now more effective to fight the regime out of prison than out of exile,” said Khodorkovsky, who was forced to leave Russia after his 2013 prison sentence. His case is a warning case: he, too, returned from abroad knowing that he would be in jail, but underestimated the Kremlin’s decision. “I thought I would get at most 3-4 years, but it was 10.”

Dissent Crackdown