Mankind is 100 seconds away from total extinction. Again.
This is according to the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, a non-profit organization and publication whose signature Doomsday Clock – in the sharp terms of ‘minutes to midnight’, estimates how close the world has been to apocalypse since 1947.
“The collective wisdom of our group is that this is a very dangerous time with incredibly important highlights,” Rachel Bronson, executive director and publisher of the bulletin, said Wednesday.
The clock remains set to ‘100 seconds to midnight’ – unchanged from last year, when the hands were moved as close as it was to midnight. At the time, the bulletin said the move was intended to reflect heightened tensions and weakened communications between the United States and other countries, including Russia and Iran.
This year, scientists have pointed to the sad response of world leaders to the coronavirus pandemic, the erosion of the public’s faith in science and government institutions, the acceleration of nuclear weapons programs and the ongoing threat of climate change.
The time is getting closer to midnight since 2018, when the clock was set at two minutes to 12.
The last time it was so close was in 1953, after the United States and the Soviet Union tested their first thermonuclear weapons.
“Next year, as always, we hope to move the hands of the Doomsday Clock away from midnight,” Dr Bronson said.
The Bulletin’s Science and Safety Council, made up of nuclear and climate experts and other scientists, meets twice a year to discuss how world events should determine where the clock will fall.
They discuss whether humanity is safer or at greater risk than at the same time last year or compared to 75 years ago, dr. Bronson said.
Even if scientists decide what time it will be on the clock, it is not a scientific or even a physical instrument, but a symbolic instrument.
And the annual warning has caused skepticism.
“When I’m charitable, I say, ‘OK, it’s part of a broader effort to draw collective attention to immediate concerns or long-term things that could have catastrophic consequences, such as climate change,” said Andrew Latham, a professor , said. of International Relations at Macalester College in St. Paul, Minn.
“But it’s like the boy who cried wolf,” he said. “After a certain period, we are not going to pay attention.”
The board has previously projected optimism about the world’s future. In 1990, when the Cold War came to an end, the clock was set at ten minutes to midnight. The following year it was a full 17 minutes away, the farthest humanity has been since the launch of the destruction since the launch of the Doomsday Clock.
(Because the clock is not updated in real time, some geopolitical shifts are too fast to register. In 1962, for example, his hands were not moved in response to the Cuban Missile Crisis because ‘too little time was known about the circumstances of the absence). or what the outcome would be, ”is stated in the bulletin on his website.)
The council said there was reason to hope this year, citing President Biden’s decision to rejoin the Paris Agreement and his intention to rejoin the Iran nuclear deal.
On Tuesday, Mr. Biden and President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia avoided a renewed arms race when they formally agreed to extend the last remaining nuclear arms treaty between their countries.
“The election of a US president who recognizes climate change as a serious threat and supports international cooperation and scientific policies puts the world on a much better level to address global problems,” he said. Susan Solomon, Professor of Environmental Studies at MIT and a member of the Bulletin’s Scientific Council.
Jerry Brown, the former governor of California, who is the executive chairman of the bulletin, said political leaders did not convey the real threat of nuclear weapons to the public.
“It’s time to get real and stop building nuclear weapons and find a way to eliminate them from all over the world,” he said. Brown, a Democrat, said Wednesday.
Mr. Brown added: ‘It’s 100 seconds to midnight. Wake up.”
Despite such proclamations, the public should not panic, said dr. Latham said.
The time shown on the Doomsday Clock is not based on an algorithm that analyzes objective data, but on the concerns of intelligent, well-meaning people who use available information and consult each other.
The clock is “a relic of a bygone era, an artifact of an Armageddon moment-now attitude,” said Dr. Latham said.
Yet he added that there is no reason to ignore it.
“Once a year it reminds us that there are some big dangers out there,” he said. “They were all man-made, and that could mean they could not be made human.”