An actual projection of the Covid-19 case directory and the progression of the different evacuation plans in the whole world indicates that the pandemic will end by the month of April, estimated by a team of JP Morgan analysts.
In its analysis, the finance specialists do not consider as a factor preoccupying the most contagious variant operated in the United Kingdom, which has been expanding for decades.
“The propagation of the variant B.1.1.7. is not compatible with a general dissemination of the Covid cases and the end of the pandemic in the second quarter, debit to the evacuation campaigns, the natural immunity, the stationality and other factors “, writes one of the analysts in the information, quoted by medios estadounidenses. The report does not refer to the variants detected in South Africa and Brazil.
“If the date of the date is correct, the statistical analysis on the vacancy is consistent with a strong reduction (that is, the end effect) of the pandemic in less than 40 or 70 days”, added. This rank implies that the target is read at some point between March and April finals.
JP Morgan analysts are evaluating the impact of front-end evacuation campaigns on Covid-19 cases and the field of propagation in areas where the United Kingdom is circulating and is not being circulated extensively in the United States and the United Kingdom. that the list of cases back to the holidays in the United States as in the United Kingdom was “ideological cases”, except that the variant of the United Kingdom was not detected in the North American country.
In addition, it is reported that cases in Denmark during the same period will increase even more rapidly than in the United Kingdom and the EU, and since then the contagions in the northern part of the country have decreased more rapidly than in the United Kingdom. Expand. Somewhat this is observed in the states of Florida and California, where the new cases of coronavirus have descended from the most rapid entry of the national commodity, except that these states have a high number of detected cases of the British variant .
“This is another example of an increase in the cases of variant B.1.1.7. can be consistent with a reduction in the general cases (for example, debt to the station, to the evacuation or to the natural administration) “, indicates the report.
The document also analyzes the progress of the vacancy at the global level. Discovered that, on a daily basis, at an increase of 10% in the vacancies administered, the new cases of Covid-19 were reduced to a rate of 117 per million people. This is compared to a promotional propaganda of 230 cases of Covid-19 per million people in samples of a 25 countries.
Simply using these figures and assuming that the actual pace of vacancy is constant, and that social distance and other preventive measures are permanent in their place, the specialists conclude that the end of the pandemic could take place between 40 and 70 días.
The analysis of the team contains, without embarrassment, a series of advertisements: the calculation assumes that there will be no countermeasures with the launch of the vacancy summit and ignore the regional differences in geography, demography and the equal distribution of the differences.
But these factors, which can distort the results of haceros demasiado optimistas, also have their reversal, debido that the actual stage of the vacations in all the world have as object to the mayors of 65 years, who have represented him approximately the mitad of hospitalizations and around 85% of deaths since commencing the pandemic. Vacating to this group is likely to have an incremental impact on the mayor in the case of Covid-19, which is the next group of young people and less likely to commit adverse events related to the crime.
Source: www.infobae.com