Joe Biden has a European ally problem

Alliances are the cornerstone of President Joe Biden’s foreign policy agenda. Whether confronted with China, curbing the coronavirus pandemic, or addressing climate change, Biden has repeatedly emphasized the importance of working with allies to meet major global challenges.

But the problem with keystones is that when they crumble, the rest of the structure coincides with it. And less than a week into Biden’s presidency, the building began to shake. This is because the United States and its closest European allies have not been synchronized on a number of prominent topics from China to Venezuela to trade.

Last December, the European Union signed a long-promised investment agreement with China despite the public concern of Biden’s then-incoming national security adviser. Jake Sullivan. The concern is that China will not only intensify economic relations with America’s transatlantic allies, but will also use the newfound access to steal intellectual property from European industries.

This week, the EU as a bloc considered its support for Juan Guaidó, the Venezuelan opposition leader, European countries and the US, because of the country’s interim president since 2019. Now the EU says Guaidó is a ‘privileged negotiator’, what ‘ a gap in the trans-Atlantic strategy to oust the country’s dictator, Nicolás Maduro.

Biden also signed its executive order ‘Buy American’ on Monday to ensure that the US government buys ‘where possible’ items that will allow US companies to compete in strategic industries and allow US employees to thrive. ‘Experts fear that European governments will view the move as a continuation of former President Trump’s protectionist economic policies.

No two governments have ever been in perfect line, and there have been rifts between American and European countries for decades. But early signs suggest that Biden can not only count on European support reflexively, making it a much higher priority to get longtime allies on his side.

“Europeans do not want to follow the US” whatever they want to do, said Erik Brattberg, European program director of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington, DC. “Just because Biden is nice and he’s not Trump does not change the calculation.”

The investment agreement between America and China holds headlines for Biden

At the end of 2020, the EU and China entered into a long-promised investment transaction. Although details remain thin, the main reason for the agreement is that European countries in the bloc will have greater access to the Chinese market and that their businesses in China will be treated more fairly, while Beijing will make commitments on issues ranging from the use of forced labor. . to use technology to force technology companies to hand over valuable trade secrets to gain access to the Chinese market.

Experts believe that the agreement made sense for the EU. After all, its companies would now have greater access to the world’s largest market, which could boost the continent’s economy for decades to come.

But analysts also note that the disadvantages may outweigh the benefits. They suspect that Beijing may have agreed to the agreement to launch a Biden-led transatlantic effort to put China under pressure over its economic and trade practices.

Xinhua / Ding Lin via Getty Images

The new administration seems to agree. Sullivan, Biden’s top national security assistant, expressed concern about the deal a few days before it was finalized. “The Biden-Harris government will welcome early consultations with our European partners on our general concern about China’s economic practices,” he tweeted on December 21. a clear ‘we also welcome this agreement’.

It will be difficult to move the EU. It has just entered into the agreement, and the bloc has a unique agency with which the US can share information on China’s objectives. This means that Biden’s staff have to go from country to country to explain what they know about Beijing’s real economic goals and the alleged security threats posed by Chinese technology companies.

“In many ways, the Trump policy was right, but the Europeans did not like the rhetoric,” said Ryan Tully, who served as senior director for Europe in Trump’s National Security Council. “Now you see the right rhetoric, but I’m worried that the right policy has a setback.”

If Biden hopes that his presence – or Trump’s absence – would automatically mean closer ties between the US and the EU over China’s policies, he should rethink. “Biden’s team needs to realize that it needs to use Europe to create a joint strategy against China,” Brattberg told me, not just imposing his own strategy on Europe.

US and EU see their Venezuela problem differently

In early 2019, the US formed a global coalition of more than 50 countries to recognize Guaidó as the legal president of Venezuela.

They argued that the presidential election in May 2018 was applied to give Maduro a second term of six years and that Guaidó, as the head of the National Assembly (the country’s legislative body), under the constitution of Venezuela the rightful – although temporary – leader of the country.

The EU was a key member of the global coalition, but downgraded its view of Guaidó’s leadership on Monday. The bloc now sees him as a ‘privileged interlocutor’ – meaning he is a key leader with whom the EU will continue to liaise – just not the country’s interim president.

The reason for the change may be simple: Venezuela only held the national election last year in which Guaidó and his group refused to participate, claiming that the vote was against them. As a result, Guaidó is no longer the head of the legislature and can therefore not be considered constitutionally the country’s interim president. However, in its statement on Tuesday, the bloc reiterated “its support for all those who work for a democratic future for Venezuela”.

Leonardo Fernandez Viloria / Getty Images

Nevertheless, the attitude means that the US and EU currently see Guaidó differently. Antony Blinken said during his confirmation hearing last week as foreign minister that the Biden government would continue to regard Guaidó as the legal leader of Venezuela. (Blinken was confirmed for the post on Tuesday.)

What this means for the future of US and EU Venezuela policy is unclear. Laura Gamboa, an assistant professor at the University of Utah, said the divergent view of Guaidó’s status clearly ‘weakens America’s ability to make the effort seem more multilateral’, even though Washington and Brussels share the same goal. To kick Maduro out of power.

But Dorothy Kronick of the University of Pennsylvania told me that the EU Biden might have just done a favor. By keeping the importance of Guaidó to a minimum, the Europeans gave the Americans more room to support other democratic groups in Venezuela and not just rely on Guaidó to overthrow the dictator. “This statement by the EU is by no means a setback to the commitment to restore democracy in Venezuela,” she said. “It’s about finding the most successful and effective strategy.”

After all, this is a problem that the Biden government must solve, whether the US and the EU are on the same page about Venezuela.

Biden’s ‘Buy American’ promise will anger Europe

The Obama administration sought to sign a trade agreement with Europe, known as the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), which would make it easier to sell American products in Europe and vice versa. However, both parties failed to reach an agreement, and further talks died down after Trump became president.

Some in Europe may have hoped that Biden, who was Obama’s No. 2 during the TTIP negotiations, would rekindle the pressure on free trade across the Atlantic. They were left in its place when Biden signed a ‘Buy American’ executive order on Monday to prioritize the U.S. federal government’s purchases of U.S. products over foreign manufactures.

Immediately, the British head office, Financial Times, reported that ‘America’s leading trading partners and strategic allies, including Canada and a number of European countries, have long complained that US buying measures are a protectionist attempt to shut down their multinational companies from the US economy. . ‘

Brattberg, head of the European program at the Carnegie Endowment, noted the same in our conversation. “Europeans are a little worried that protectionist policies may continue under Biden,” he told me.

Drew Angerer / Getty Images

This can pose a growing problem. Biden’s team has promised to pursue a foreign policy that would strengthen America’s working class, and to ensure that the government helps American businesses thrive is one way to do so. But to tend too much in ‘Buy American’ will only anger European allies who have waited a long time to compete fairly in the US market against local businesses.

Economic tensions between the US and Europe are already quite high. The Trump administration has imposed billions in tariffs on European goods, and both the US and the EU recently closed a troublesome trade dispute over subsidies to their major airlines. If ever there was time to calm nerves about the state of transatlantic trade relations, it would be now – and it looks like ‘Buy American’ will do the opposite.

None of this means that Biden is seriously hampering US-EU relations. It seems that the leaders of the continent are happier to see him in the Oval Office than Trump. But it’s just not clear that Biden has the close bond he had hoped for, proving a major foreign policy problem for his previous presidency.