A shot for every American. Political leaders and vaccine manufacturers have been trying to achieve this goal since the beginning of the pandemic, and it may finally become a reality this summer.
An advisory committee to the Food and Drug Administration will vote Friday on whether Johnson & Johnson’s single-dose coronavirus shot should be recommended for emergency clearance. An FDA review Wednesday showed that the shot is safe and effective against COVID-19.
If the J&J survey gets the green light as expected, it will be the third coronavirus survey to be distributed across the US. Vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna have so far been administered to more than 45 million Americans, although less than 21 million Americans have received the complete two-dose regimen.
Pfizer and Moderna have promised to distribute 600 million doses to the American public by the end of July – enough to vaccinate 300 million people completely. J&J, meanwhile, said it could deliver up to 100 million doses of its vaccine by the end of June.
This means that by the summer, the US will have more than enough doses to vaccinate all 332 million Americans (although shots have not yet been allowed for children under 16).
Here’s a timeline of how vaccinations may increase in the next five months:
- March 31: 240 million doses distributed
- May 31: 420 million doses distributed
- June 30: 500 million doses distributed
- July 31: 700 million doses distributed
Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are each more than 90% effective in preventing symptomatic COVID-19, while J & Js appear to be 66% effective in preventing moderate to severe cases. However, it is difficult to compare the trials of the companies side by side, as they took place at different stages of the pandemic and in different geographical regions.
End of March: Vaccination for priority groups
J&J originally planned to deliver 12 million doses by the end of February. But federal officials said only 3 to 4 million doses would be available immediately next week, assuming the FDA authorizes the shot.
By the end of March, the company is likely to have produced 20 million doses, Richard Nettles, J & J’s vice president of American medical affairs, said during a hearing in the House Committee on Tuesday.
White House coronavirus tsar Jeffrey Zients called the slow pace of J & J’s production ‘disappointing’ on Wednesday. But the government has started helping the business acquire equipment and raw materials, he said, accelerating the pace.
Pfizer and Moderna, meanwhile, are on track to distribute a cumulative dose of 220 million by 31 March.
On December 13, 2020, UPS employees moved a shipping container containing Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine inside a sorting facility in Louisville, Kentucky.
Michael Clevenger – Pool / Getty Images
During the hearing on Tuesday, Pfizer chief executive John Business said the company plans to make 120 million doses available by the end of March (including the approximately 40 million doses shipped so far). Moderna president Stephen Hoge said the company would deliver 100 million doses (including 54 million that have already gone out) within the same time.
This means that the US can vaccinate next month with the vaccination of priority groups (including the elderly, essential workers and people with high-risk medical conditions). The Centers for Disease Control & Prevention estimates that these groups number about 200 million people.
End of May: The general population gets its shots
In total, all three pharmaceutical companies will deliver approximately 420 million doses by the end of May. Vaccinations for the general public could be underway by April.
Pfizer is on track to produce another 80 million doses by the end of May, bringing the U.S. total to 200 million. Moderna originally planned to deliver another 100 million doses in the US by the end of June, but it would now arrive in May.
People are waiting in a parking lot at Disneyland to receive COVID-19 vaccines in Anaheim, California.
Valerie Macon / AFP / Getty Images
Both companies are also still trying to speed up their vaccination.
Pfizer told USA TODAY that it has added more production lines to its manufacturing plants, reducing the amount of time it takes to produce vaccines and soon reducing the time it takes to make DNA for the vaccines. In January, the FDA also ordered the vaccines to squeeze six doses out of each bottle of Pfizer’s vaccine, rather than the five initially approved in December.
Hoge said Moderna is working to enable up to 15 doses per vial in the short term, instead of the ten currently being withdrawn from the vaccinations.
A recent report by the American Enterprise Institute, a right-thinking tank, found that by mid-May, 50% of the U.S. population could be protected from COVID-19 if the J&J shot was authorized. Without the third vaccine, it could take two to three weeks to reach the point, the researchers said.
End of June: all adults have access to a shot
Netles said J&J could deliver up to 100 million doses of vaccine by June 30 (including the 20 million doses of spring). That would bring the total coronavirus shots spread in the US to 500 million – enough to vaccinate 300 million people, or all of the approximately 259 million adults in the US.
Federal officials still hope J&J can speed up the timeline.
“We are working with the company to accelerate the pace and time frame by which they deliver the full 100 million doses required by the end of June,” Zients said on Wednesday.
The American Enterprise Institute estimated that 75% of the U.S. population could be protected against COVID-19 by mid-June, assuming that the J&J survey is authorized.
A dentist will receive the Modern COVID-19 vaccine in Anaheim, California, on January 8, 2020.
brand Rightmire / Getty Images
End of July: US may have overdose
By the end of July, the US may have more vaccines than they can distribute.
Experts do not expect the country’s approximately 73 million children to start getting coronavirus shots by autumn or winter – or perhaps early in 2022 – because there is no information yet on the safety or efficacy of the vaccines among younger age groups. (The exception is the admission of Pfizer, which is allowed for ages 16 and older.)
Both Pfizer and Moderna plan to deliver another 100 million doses by the end of July, bringing the total doses of the companies to 300 million each. The US did not buy more than that, although they have the option to buy 200 million doses each from J&J, Moderna and Pfizer.
According to the American Enterprise Institute, “the addition of a third [vaccine] candidate will mean that from 22% to 33% more of the population can be vaccinated by July. ‘