TOKYO – After days of record numbers in the coronavirus and a rapidly rising death toll, Japan said on Thursday it would declare a state of emergency in Tokyo and three surrounding prefectures, the country’s first statement since April.
The announcement comes five days after governors of the prefectures pleaded with the central government to act, and after Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga’s own expert panel on coronavirus recommended the emergency declaration, citing explosive growth in infections in the big capital.
The deaths from the virus in Japan have doubled in less than two months, to 3,700, and the Tokyo governor has warned that the medical system is under stress. Mr. Suga hesitated to call in the emergency measure in hopes of maintaining economic activity, but eventually bowed to pressure from officials in Tokyo as polls show great dissatisfaction with his four-month-old government and handling the pandemic.
Mr Suga’s footsteps illustrated the difficult choices many world leaders face in almost a year in a pandemic that is now entering an exhausting new phase, with a few more months of vaccination. They are under pressure to reduce increasing consequences, despite public fatigue over virus restrictions, while also bringing life to their economies.
Health experts have warned that the emergency statement, which will last one month, will still not be enough to turn the tide.
The declaration has few legal conditions and is mostly based on voluntary compliance. The government calls for restaurants in Tokyo, Chiba, Kanagawa and Saitama Prefectures to close at 8pm, employers to encourage staff members to work from home, and residents to refrain from doing anything but the most important tasks, even after 8pm: 00. , museums, theaters, gyms and shops will remain open.
Shigeru Omi, head of the panel, told reporters after the government’s expert panel on Tuesday recommended the move, that the declaration of a state of emergency could not guarantee a weakening in the rate of infection.
“It is not possible to control within a few weeks or less than a month,” he said. Omi said. “Stronger measures may be needed.”
Japan reported a total of 258,393 cases, far fewer than many Western countries. Emerging from the previous, brief state of emergency in May, it maintained the ‘Japan model’: an intense focus on contact detection and cluster breaker, widespread masked wear, and as few economic constraints as possible. .
As Japan has experienced several record days for new infections since late last month – Tokyo reported more than 2,000 cases on Thursday and the country a record of 5,953 – the coronavirus control model has come under strain. Japan is not expected to start vaccinating the public until the end of February, a process that will take months.
“We currently have too many cases to detect, and the state of emergency is coming too late,” said Fumie Sakamoto, an infection manager at the St. Luke’s International Hospital in Tokyo, said. “It’s better now than ever, but it probably had to be declared last fall.”
Sakamoto said the hospital’s intensive care beds and general wards are full. “We can not take any more patients at the moment,” she said. “I think a lot of hospitals that take in Covid patients are currently in the same situation.”
Japan has been gradually taking steps since late last month, when it first discovered cases of the more transmissible variant of the coronavirus that first emerged in Britain. The government has closed the borders for new foreign travelers, and Mr. Suga has suspended subsidies for a domestic travel program after weeks of resistance.
The state of emergency announced Thursday has no legal force to force businesses to close early, but Mr. Suga said the government would consider amending the law to allow local authorities to punish businesses that do not comply with official requests. The government has also said it will reimburse businesses that close early or other requests to restrict operations.
Mr. Suga weighed in on such new enforcement powers that the public quickly soured its administration. Nearly 60 percent of respondents in a poll by Nikkei and TV Tokyo late last month said they did not approve of the government’s handling of the pandemic. Only 42 percent said they supported Suga’s government, compared to three-quarters in September when he became prime minister.
Some political analysts have said that Mr. Suga and its Liberal Democratic Party are more interested in business interests than the general public.
“The LDP has traditionally not been a party for the ordinary Japanese voter,” said Amy Catalinac, an assistant professor of politics at New York University. “It was the party for its various interest groups and supporters,” many in the restaurant and travel industry were negatively affected by requests to restrict activities, she continued.
The time has now come, some analysts have said, for the government to recalibrate its priorities.
“It just shows you how difficult it is to break away from the mindset that they have had quite a lot over the past year to find a balance between public health and economic growth and we will keep trying to thread the needle,” he said. said Tobias Harris, an expert on Japanese politics at Teneo Intelligence in Washington.
“It is certainly possible that Suga could go through this if the numbers start to improve, the vaccine spreads, the weather changes and somehow gets mixed up without a major emergency or taking actions that could really affect the economy,” he said. Harris said. “It’s a pretty big risk.”
However, some economists have said that since Japan’s contagion level was still much lower than in Britain, continental Europe or the United States, any restrictions would unnecessarily damage an already battered economy.
“Of course it’s a problem as the number of infections and deaths increases, but I do not think the current numbers are that serious,” said Taro Saito, an executive research fellow at the NLI Research Institute in Tokyo. “I think it’s an overreaction.”
Consumption in Japan could fall by 1.7 trillion yen ($ 16.5 billion) in a month, according to an estimate by Toshihiro Nagahama, chief economist at the Dai-ichi Life Research Institute.
Nevertheless, Nagahama believes that the emergency declaration is necessary to reduce infections and prevent the collapse of the medical system.
As Japan enters the difficult winter months of the pandemic, relief remains a prospect. The country has not yet approved any of the vaccines being rolled out in the United States, Europe and other parts of the world. It has contracts to buy doses of Pfizer, Moderna and AstraZeneca.
The country nevertheless has an urgent reason, other than lifesaving, to prevent new infections from popping up: they hope to host the postponed 2020 Olympics this summer.
The biggest targets of the emergency are restaurants. With a large majority of the public wearing masks in trains, shops and schools, experts said a significant proportion of broadcasts are likely to take place during indoor eateries, when people have to take off their masks to eat.
Takayuki Kojima, 56, manager of Platinum Lamb, a grilled meat restaurant in Shimbashi, a popular Tokyo neighborhood for after-work events, asked to close it on request. The restrictions would deprive businesses like him of his most popular working hours. .
“This is the busiest time,” he said. Kojima said. “Honestly, I feel like we’re being told to stop the business”. He said many restaurants could go bankrupt. In addition to the limited opening hours, he said, many of his regular customers will now work from home.
Keiji Dobashi, 46, manager of Itamae Baru, a Japanese restaurant in Ginza, a popular shopping and nightlife district in Tokyo, said many sectors matching the restaurant business would suffer, including fish, vegetable and meat vendors. , liquor stores, florists, uniform manufacturers and even businesses that manufacture small towels, known as oshibori, which provide restaurants to all customers before serving food.
But Mr. Dobasi said he relied on the restrictions. “I do not think we have another choice,” he said. “Until the pandemic is controlled, the economy will not recover.”