Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had hoped to declare victory over the March 23 election pandemic, but new rapidly spreading variants of COVID-19 shattered hope.
Why it matters: Netanyahu’s main political vulnerability is dealing with the pandemic. He acknowledged that his numbers in the polls were directly linked to the number of vaccinations, new infections and deaths, as well as his ability to reopen the economy.
He wanted to base his election campaign about the world’s leading vaccination campaign, in which 21% of the population over 16 received both doses, including 70% in the highest priority groups (medical workers and people over 60).
- But Israel is also in the midst of its worst COVID-19 wave to date, with the daily death toll reaching the highest record. The capacity of the medical system is close to a breaking point.
- Four weeks of exclusion, Israel’s new number of cases, which remains among the highest in the world, adapted for the population, has just begun to slow down. Israeli officials say the rapid spread is due to new virus variants.
- The government is likely to extend the closure by another week or two.
Between the lines: The infection rate is particularly high in ultra-Orthodox communities, which for the most part have not complied with the lock-in rules and kept schools open, even if they were closed elsewhere.
- Netanyahu has come under heavy criticism for failing to implement the lock-in of the ultra-Orthodox community, which is an important part of his right-wing political bloc.
- When police recently tried to lock up the lockdown, violent riots broke out in ultra-Orthodox cities. This only led to more criticism of Netanyahu.
- A Channel 12 poll published on Tuesday found that 61% of Israelis – and 52% of right-wing voters – want to exclude ultra-Orthodox parties from the next coalition government.
The state of affairs: Recent polls suggest Netanyahu’s Likud party was stable with 29-30 seats, with public praise for the vaccination campaign balanced by criticism of the closure and rising death toll.
What’s next: Netanyahu’s broader political bloc lacks the 61-seat needed to form the next coalition. Without a positive change in COVID-19 numbers by March, he will have a hard time achieving it.