Israeli military intelligence and senior Mossad officials informed a meeting of the country’s security cabinet that talks in Vienna between Iran and other world powers would lead to the US returning to the nuclear deal in 2015, two officials who attended the meeting , told me.
Why it matters: The Israeli government is very concerned about the return of the US to the nuclear deal and is trying to convince the Biden government not to take the pressure off the Iranian government.
Send the news: The Mossad briefed the cabinet meeting mainly on the status of the Iranian nuclear program. Military intelligence officials discussed Iranian actions in the region during the meeting.
- The two intelligence agencies have made similar assessments about where the talks are in Vienna.
What they say: “We are not optimistic to say the least,” a senior Israeli official who attended the meeting told me. “We will not be surprised if the US and other world powers sign an agreement with Iran within a few weeks.”
- National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan told Fox News Sunday that Vienna’s talks with Iran were “constructive” and that a real effort was being made to return to mutual compliance with the 2015 nuclear deal.
- Sullivan added that the US will not lift sanctions unless he has ‘clarity and confidence’ that Iran will fully return to all its obligations under the 2015 agreement.
What’s next: Israeli officials have told me that no new policy decisions have been taken at today’s cabinet meeting, and Israel will continue the dialogue with the Biden government on the negotiations with Iran.
- In the next two weeks, Israeli National Security Adviser Meir Ben Shabbatt, Chief of Staff of the IDF, Aviv Kochavi, Chief of Israeli Military Intelligence Tamir Hayman and Mossad Director Yossi Cohen will visit Washington for talks with their counterparts on Iran, officials tell me .