After a sharp decline in daily COVID-19 cases in New York City, daily infections now remain stubbornly high at 3,700.
The stagnation coincides with the arrival of an enticing suspect at the scene: a variant known as B1526 that first appeared in Upper Manhattan in November.
As of the latest data, as of February 23, the variant has tested about 34 percent of New York State’s coronavirus samples to see if it contains one of the various variants distributed in the U.S., according to outbreak.info.
This is a fivefold increase over a week earlier, when only six percent of the samples in New York submitted to the national GISAID database were positive for the B1256 mutations.
But the dramatic increase is not the complete story. The US is also finally doing these kinds of tests – which require scientists to sequence the entire genome of a virus sample – making it more likely that they will find the variant.
Virologists warn against these assumptions, especially if the New York City variant is so new and still being researched.
But the NYC variant does contain mutations seen in others that can infect humans better, and its increasing incidence could threaten to re-ignite COVID-19 cases in New York as the previous decline stops.
The ‘New York’ variant, B1526, was detected in 34% of the samples from the state tested for mutations, a fivefold increase over the previous week, when it was found in only 6% ^ of the New York samples were detected.
New cases of COVID-19 remain stubbornly high in New York City, where the 7-day moving average of cases is 3,700
It also comes amid administrative chaos in New York.
In addition to allegations of sexual misconduct, Governor Andrew Cuomo is also being investigated for concealing information about the real burden of COVID-19 deaths in nursing homes.
And getting a clear picture of how the New York pandemic is going has become increasingly difficult in the months since Cuomo briefly became a bastion of transparency thanks to his daily COVID briefings.
Now the New York Department of Health reports that there were 7,593 new positive tests on Wednesday.
The state recorded 4,025 cases in New York City that day.
New York City has stopped reporting daily cases on its health department website, but Mayor Bill de Blasio tweeted that the city saw 3,270 new COVID-19 cases yesterday.
Meanwhile, data from Johns Hopkins University yesterday showed 6,564 new cases in New York State.
It is therefore unclear exactly how many new cases of coronavirus were present in the city or state yesterday, but no matter what data is used, the decrease in cases has flattened.
The New York variant was first spotted in mid-November in the Washington Heights neighborhood of Upper Manhattan.
It is believed that it had the chance to develop in a person who has advanced AIDS.
Scientists have warned that there are two important opportunities for the virus to tackle significant mutations that lead to new strains: high infection rates and infections in immunocompromised patients, where the virus can linger longer, ‘learning’ and developing the human immune system. mutations that help it survive blunted attacks of our bodies.
The prevalence of the variant has also increased in the US as a whole and is responsible for more than 30% of the samples tested. But Outbreak.info notes that fewer samples have been submitted recently, which may skew the appearance of the variant
The variant was identified right around the time New York entered its second boom in COVID-19 infections, which also coincides with the holiday season, making it unlikely that the variant in those cases is responsible for the increase.
But now that the cases of B1526 double approximately every month, according to data from outbreak.info, it may contribute to the stable, high percentage of overall cases in New York.
Across the country, decline in the case is seen. Experts believe it is driven by several causes: the presence of more transmissible and contagious variants, such as the UK B117 form, ‘pandemic fatigue’ among Americans who are tired of wearing masks and staying home, and restrictions in many states are relaxed.
The B117 variant is surely the most common mutant in the US (besides the wild type).
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has confirmed at least 2,500 cases of B117 in 46 states and predicted in January that the variant would become March during this month.
CDC Director Dr Rochelle Walensky gave a stern warning about the proliferation of varieties: ‘Please hear me clearly: at this level of cases with varieties that are spreading, we will completely lose the hard-earned ground we have gained,’ she said during a Monday. WHite House personal information session.
At least one case of the New York variant has each been identified in St. Maarten, Japan, Singapore, Croatia, Ireland and the United Kingdom, with the exception of the 1113 found in the US, according to Outbreak.info
The variant has been detected in 22 states, including Texas, MIississippi, New Mexico, Wyoming, New Jersey and Michigan
‘These variants are a very serious threat to our people and our progress. This is not the time to spread the critical precautions we know by slowing down the spread of COVID-19 in our communities, not when we are so close. ‘
Variants from South Africa and Brazil are also now in the USA. There are at least 65 cases of the B1351 variant of South Africa and ten cases of the P1 variant of Brazil in America.
So can homemade varieties be a threat to progress in the states where they originated?
Dr. Anthony Fauci certainly maintains the possibility.
He warned that the New York variant was “now gaining ground” and said the Biden government was “taking it very seriously” during Wednesday’s press briefing.
There is not yet solid evidence that the variant is more transmissible or lethal.
But its mutations suggest that the B1526 variant is more capable of infecting human cells.
It has mutations at the E484K and S477N sites along its genome.
Laboratory tests and observations of variants with these mutations suggest that it makes the virus more difficult to detect antibodies and makes it better to infect human cells.
Between the ‘California’ and ‘New York’ variants, the New York’s more interesting ‘for Scripps Research University immunologist Dr Kristian Andersen, he said in a Twitter thread.
Like the South African and Brazilian variants, it appears that the New York variant has some Ab [antibody] immunity, in a part of the country with a high level of immunity, ‘Dr Andersen wrote, referring to the fact that a large proportion of New Yorkers already had COVID-19 since the Big Apple last year became the epicenter of the pandemic.
It is still too early to say whether the variant is the numbers in New York, but Dr. Anderson wrote that it is definitely an investigation.
And with the variant now identified in 22 states, the answer to the question could have national consequences.
But it is critical to note that, even if it seems that all the scientists’ greatest concerns about the New York variant are true, it is still no longer transferable – this means that masks and social distance are still there. will work – it does not seem to make people any sicker, or more likely to die, and it is unlikely that it will completely evade the immunity and antibody induced by vaccine.
In short: the variant is worth looking at and worrying about, but not panicked.
