Kiev has sounded the alarm over Russia’s biggest military build-up along Ukraine’s border since 2014 – the year Crimea was annexed as speculation grows or Moscow intends to make a similar impression on Ukrainian territory.
Clashes have escalated in recent weeks in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk and Luhansk regions, the scene of hostilities between Kiev-backed troops and Russian-backed separatists.
Kyiv said Russia had deployed more than 40,000 troops on the eastern border of Ukraine and more than 40,000 troops in Crimea. The growing presence prompted US Secretary of State Antony Blinken to warn Russia that there would be “consequences” if Moscow acted “recklessly or aggressively”.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba accused Russia of openly threatening his country with war and warned on Thursday that “if Russia crosses the red border, it will have to suffer.”
Despite the increase in tension, experts suggest that the possibility of an immediate mass invasion is unlikely.
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Air Force General Tod Wolters, the leading US general in Europe, told US lawmakers on Thursday that there was a ‘low to medium’ risk of such an invasion.
“My sense is, with the trend I am currently seeing, that the likelihood of an event will begin to decline,” he told the Armed Services Committee, later suggesting that the conclusion was based in part on the attitude of Russian forces.
Mark Galeotti, a Russian expert and honorary professor at the University of London’s School of Slavonic and Eastern European Studies, said that despite the Russian build-up, there is still not the important logistical base in place needed for a full-scale military offensive not.
“It does not rule out that they will start building even more this afternoon.
“But it does give us a hint that it’s not really the prelude to the big ride to push a land bridge to the Crimea … or any of the other nightmare scenarios that some people produce,” he said. Newsweek.
He predicted fewer scenarios, such as Russia withdrawing its troops after two weeks, “because he made the point that they could mobilize forces very quickly.”
Another possibility is that Russian troops no longer want to occupy land, but ‘only’ to punish Ukrainian forces’.
“It’s coercive diplomacy of the heavy-handed kind, and the worst we can expect is more violence in line, but it’s not surprising that people are failing in the worst situations,” Galeotti said.
Russia insists the troop movements are an internal matter with Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, saying they were part of readiness exercises amid what he described as NATO threats.
April usually sees an increase in tension along the border after thawing after winter, and there may be sporadic collisions along the line.
Author of Weak Strongman: Putin’s Limits of Power in Russia, Timothy Frye, said there was little appetite among the Russian public for a conflict in eastern Ukraine, especially since the Kremlin had previously made efforts to renounce the deaths of Moscow-backed fighters in the region.
“Russian public opinion is very cautious about any form of Russian military involvement in eastern Ukraine. If there is a loss of life, it could really backfire,” he said. Newsweek.
A more likely scenario could be the insertion of Russian peacekeepers under the pretext of protecting Russian citizens who have received passports from the Russian government, who live in the areas controlled by the rebel forces.
“This is a tactic that can be sold at home and would also be a smaller step on the ladder of escalation than a complete military invasion,” said Fyre, who chairs Columbia’s Department of Political Science.