Michigan’s seven-day average of new COVID-19 cases dropped 14% in the past week.
The seven-day mean positivity rate on coronavirus diagnostic tests dropped for the 11th consecutive days.
Is Michigan finally turning its third coronavirus boom?
“Ask me the question in a week,” said Dr. Liam Sullivan, an infectious disease specialist for Spectrum Health in Grand Rapids, said.
“Too soon to say,” said Dr. Paul Entler, a vice president at Sparrow Health System in Lansing, said. “I would like to see another week’s numbers.”
“I have two theories,” said Dr. Joel Fishbein, a Grosse Pointe infectious disease specialist with Beaumont Health. ‘The first theory is that everyone has been incubating exposure for the past two weeks this week and that it will increase again next week. If I’m wrong, it’s going on.
“I hope I’m wrong, but let’s wait to make sure there are not a bunch of people smoldering right now waiting to become symptomatic,” he said. “If it’s going to go down in a week, we might be done.”
If the tide is indeed turning, it is not too soon. Michigan is currently in the first place in the country for coronavirus transmission, and the severity of the current boom has led to a record number of hospitalizations that seriously put health care resources under pressure.
“It was definitely the worst boom of all,” Entler said, and one factor in that is the ongoing strain on health care professionals.
The general public is unaware of the long-term impact of the pandemic on hospital workers, including the mental strain of caring for so many critically ill people, he said. “We see more death over a long period of time than we usually see.”
And even though the number of cases is lower, hospitalizations and deaths are still increasing – no surprise, because these are lagging factors. In the recent boom, hospitalizations rose about two weeks to the peak in cases, and deaths another two weeks thereafter.
A particularly worrying aspect of hospitalizations was that patients were younger and sicker compared to the first year of the pandemic, which doctors attribute to the B.1.1.7. variant that is more contagious and more deadly.
In fact, doctors say they see fewer senior citizens – who are more likely to be vaccinated – and many more patients under the age of 50, most of whom have only recently been eligible for COVID-19 vaccines.
“What’s really worrying to me is the number of cases we see in the age group of zero to 9 years, which is much higher than before,” Sullivan said.
On Tuesday, 71 children were admitted to the hospital, which is a record.
Fishbain said he also sees a spate of younger, sicker patients. “It’s like you take what we’ve seen before, and move it down by one or two decades,” he said. ‘We have 20-year-olds who are being admitted, and 30-year-olds who need oxygen, who we’ve never seen before, and need as much treatment as we can give it. We have 40- and 50-year-olds who end up on fans. ”
The good news is that the increase in deaths was less strong while hospitalizations increased. While Michigan achieves about 57 deaths a day, it is half the average at the peak of the fall. This is due to relatively high vaccination rates among senior citizens, who are at greatest risk of dying from COVID-19.
That the age of 65 and older has been less affected by the current boom shows the effectiveness of the vaccines, doctors say, and the hope is that the vaccination program will be increased among younger adults and teens.
However, it can be a slow process: nearly 70% of 16- to 49-year-olds have not yet had their first chance, and it takes five to six weeks after the first dose to take immunity with the Pfizer. and Modern vaccines.
“We know the vaccines work,” Entler said. “The whole key to vaccinations is to prevent hospitalizations and deaths, and at this stage it seems to be true” among those who are vaccinated.
The problem, however, is that not enough people are fully immunized.
“The faster we can get the young population vaccinated, the faster we can curb it,” Entler said. “And hopefully we can prevent another upsurge.”
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