Iran last weekend threatened to terminate an agreement with the UN weapons inspectors if Western countries proceed with plans to dismantle it over the failure to cooperate fully with the International Atomic Energy Agency.
Western leaders plan to table a motion at the IAEA next week condemning Iran for withdrawing the overarching agreement with the UN body that gives inspectors access to its nuclear sites.
IAEA Director-General Rafael Grossi responded to the Iranian ruling by concluding a three-month agreement in Tehran last Sunday, which he said was satisfied that its inspectors could still do their job, albeit less effectively than before.
But the US and some European countries appear determined to give the IAEA an indication that Iran is acting unacceptably by reducing its cooperation with the inspectors and severing its commitments under the 2015 nuclear deal on issues such as uranium enrichment supplies.
In a paper sent to other IAEA member states ahead of the quarterly meeting of the Council of Governors in Vienna next week, the US said it wanted a resolution to “address the Council’s deep concern about Iran’s cooperation with to express the IAEA “.
The board is said to be appealing to Iran to stop the breaches of the agreement and to work with the IAEA to explain how uranium shares were found on old, unexplained sites.
Iran has said it considers such a move ‘destructive’ and will end its weekend deal with Grossi. Iranian diplomats said the US motion would lead to further complications in connection with the 2015 agreement, known as the JCPoA.
The Russian Ambassador to the IAEA, Mikhail Ulyanov, called for calm and said: “The overall responsibility of all 35 governors is to ensure that the debates (even heated) do not adversely affect the diplomatic efforts of the JCPoA. . ‘
It is probably the US that will make the call or the motion will be tabled.
Some analysts have said the motion is not on time and that it is likely to backfire, which could jeopardize broader talks between Iran and the US under European Union supervision – the first such talks since Donald Trump withdrew from the JCPoA in 2018.
Ellie Geranmayeh, an analyst from Iran at the European Council on Foreign Relations, said the motion would not garner Russian support and would only lead to a setback in Tehran.
The US has offered to negotiate with Iran under the auspices of the EU on how both parties can once again comply with the agreement, and then at a later stage discuss how to improve the agreement and discuss other issues, including the ballistic missiles of Iran.
In a possible sign that some European diplomats are concerned that the board motion could put unnecessary obstacles in the way of talks, EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said there was ‘diplomatic space, a diplomatic opportunity window’ around the Bringing JCPoA back on track.
Iran wants a condition for talks that the US lift all economic sanctions imposed by the Trump administration, but the US has said it can only discuss such issues if negotiations are ongoing.
The relatively calm pace at which the Biden team is taking the prospect of direct talks with Iran is frustrating Tehran, but the US does not appear to see a breakthrough in talks if a hardline existed in June’s presidential election in Iran.
The US seems to think that Iran’s approach to the US will not be determined by the new president, but by whatever strategic consensus is formed around the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.