London Iranian and US negotiators resumed talks in Vienna on Thursday, eventually ending the nuclear power agreement fell back in 2015. But it’s a big could.
This week, Iran pushed up its uranium enrichment program in yet another breach of the agreement, which, since the U.S. stopped and Iran violated several rules, is now barely alive.
President Joe Biden’s government wants to reverse its predecessor’s unilateral withdrawal from the nuclear deal, but the process will always be delicate. Sunday’s attack on Iran’s nuclear facility in Natanz further complicated matters.
Iran responded called an act of “nuclear terrorism” by Israel with the announcement that it would start uranium enriched to 60% purity – a big step higher than the current maximum of 20%.
Although 60% of enriched uranium is not yet technically on weapons (90% or higher), the time it takes Iran to make a bomb may have a supply of it, which urges Iran not to do so. .
Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization via AP
President Hassan Rouhani has bluntly stated that “60% enrichment is an answer to your evil”, which makes it clear that the Iranian government holds the US and Israel responsible for the current escalation in tension.
Iran said on Friday that it had begun enriching uranium to a higher level. The country said it plans to use the 60% fortified product for radiopharmaceuticals, which could be used to treat diseases, including cancer.
But France, Germany and the United Kingdom, three countries also taking part in the talks in Vienna, have expressed “serious concern” about the move, saying Iran has “no credible civilian need for enrichment at this level”.
In fact, the extra enriched uranium is of less value to Iran as a medical aid than as a new bargaining agent in Vienna.
The 60% enrichment strike is now another thing Iran can offer in exchange for the lifting of US sanctions.
The talks are cumbersome because Iran has refused to meet face-to-face with US negotiators. All proposals and counter-proposals must be passed back and forth by European diplomats.
A senior U.S. State Department official who spoke to reporters last week revealed the frustration.
“You can imagine for all these questions how difficult it is when the United States says to the EU, the EU to the Iranians, the Iranians to the EU, and then come back to us,” the official said. “It really makes it slower and more complicated.”
There is no doubt that both parties want an agreement. Iran needs US sanctions lifted so it can sell oil freely to replenish its crippled economy. The US wants international cooperation and oversight to guarantee that Iran does not secretly build nuclear weapons that would destabilize the Middle East.
The first round of negotiations last week was about drawing up an agenda – a list of the things the US and Iran need to do to return to the terms of the nuclear deal, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).
“The discussions were generally productive,” said a foreign ministry spokesman. “The atmosphere was very uplifting.”
This week, if all goes well, Iran and the US – again via European intermediaries – will begin to set out in more detail who is doing what and when. They will also address how each move can be verified. For example, if the US commits to lifting sanctions on oil sales, how much oil will Iran want to trade before it is satisfied that there are no brackets?
Iranian Leadership Press Office / Distribution / Getty
For the moment, Iran’s supreme leader is stuck on the fence over the negotiations. On the one hand, he said they were probably wasting time.
“The offers they make are usually arrogant and humiliating … it is not worth looking at,” Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said in a speech on the first day of Ramadan on Monday.
On the other hand, he continues the talks, even after Sunday’s deeply damaging and humiliating attack on the Natanz nuclear facility.
There is a chance that Khamenei could decide to delay or even interrupt the talks if things do not go well in Vienna this week, until after the national elections in Iran in June, when a new, tough president will take office. .
While Iran is taking significant steps from the nuclear deal – including the demand for 60% uranium enrichment on Friday – the looming shift in the presidency could put a return to the agreement completely out of reach.