According to the latest forecast from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington, approximately 631,000 Americans will have died of Covid-19 by June 1st.
The team behind the influential prediction model said it depends a lot on the vaccination of the vaccine and the distribution of variants. In the worst case, the death toll could rise to 703,000.
“The balance between the spread of the new variant and the concomitant increased transmission and scale-up of vaccination in our most likely scenario indicates a continuing decline in daily deaths until June 1,” he said.
According to data from Johns Hopkins University, the U.S. reported more than 455,000 Covid-19 deaths as of Thursday night.
The IHME cited a poll showing an increase in the number of Americans willing to be vaccinated, from 54% to 66%.
‘Daily deaths have peaked and are declining. By 1 June 2021, we plan to save 123 600 lives through the projected vaccination of vaccines, ”the IHME said.
How to save more lives: If 95% of Americans wore masks, 44,000 more lives would be saved, the IHME said. Currently, the mask usage is about 77%.
And the people must remain seated, even if they are vaccinated, the IHME said. If vaccinated people start moving and traveling normally, 17 states could see daily deaths increase by April and May.
‘The best strategies to manage this period of the pandemic are rapid scale-up of vaccination, continued and extensive masking, and effective efforts to prevent vaccine resistance motility. “Some states are rapidly lifting mandates, which poses a real risk of increased transmission as new variants spread and vaccination rates remain relatively low,” the IHME warned.