NEW DELHI (AP) – The Indian city of Pune is getting fans up while hyenas with coronavirus patients are crowding its hospitals. Social media is full of people looking for beds, while family members are looking to many pharmacies for antiviral drugs that hospitals have not been available for a long time.
The boom, which can be seen in India, is of particular concern because the country is a major vaccine producer and a critical provider to the UN – backed COVAX initiative. The program aims to bring shots to some of the poorest countries in the world. The increase in business has already forced India to focus on meeting its domestic demand – and delaying delivery to COVAX and elsewhere, including the UK and Canada.
India said on Tuesday that it may approve a number of new vaccines, but experts say the decision is unlikely to have an immediate impact on the country’s available supplies. For now, the focus on household needs means that COVAX and everyone else has little, if anything, left, “said Brook Baker, a vaccine expert at Northeastern University.
Pune is the city hardest hit in India, but other major metropolises are also in crisis as daily new infections reach record levels, and experts believe wrong steps are being taken again due to the belief that the pandemic is ‘over’ in the country is going to haunt.
When infections began to decline in India in September, many came to the conclusion that the worst was over. Masks and social distance were abandoned, while the government gave mixed signs about the level of risk. When affairs began to increase again in February, the authorities left scurrying.
“No one has considered the pandemic in the long run,” said Dr. Vineeta Bal, who studies immune systems at the City Indian Institute of Science Education and Research, said. She noted, for example, that instead of strengthening existing hospitals, temporary premises were created. In Pune, the authorities are reviving one of those temporary facilities, which was crucial to the city’s fight against the virus last year.
India is not alone. Many countries in Europe that have seen declines in cases are experiencing new increases, and infection rates have increased in every region of the world, driven in part by new virus variants.
During the past week, India averaged more than 143,000 cases per day. Since the beginning of the pandemic, 13.6 million virus cases have been reported. It pushed its toll past Brazil, making it second only among the United States, even though both countries have a much smaller population. Deaths are also on the rise, exceeding the 170,000 mark. Even the figures, according to experts, are probably an understatement.
Almost all countries are showing an increase in infections, and Pune – home to 4 million people – is now left with only 28 unused ventilators left for its more than 110,000 COVID-19 patients on Monday night.
The country now faces the huge challenge of vaccinating millions of people, while tens of thousands become infected daily and the health care system does not collapse.
Dilnaz Boga has been in and out of hospitals for the past few months to visit a sick family member and saw the move firsthand as cases began to increase. Beds were suddenly unavailable. Nurses warned visitors to be careful. Posters with the right mask appeared everywhere.
And then, earlier this month, Boga and her 80-year-old mother tested positive. Doctors suggested that her mother be admitted to hospital, but initially no beds were available. Both she and her mother are recovering now.
Overwhelming concern about increasing cases is the fact that the country’s vaccination process can also be difficult: several Indian states have reported a shortage of doses, even though the federal government has insisted that there is enough supplies.
After a sluggish start, India recently surpassed the United States in the number of shots it gives each day and is now averaging 3.6 million. But with more than four times the number of people starting later, it has given at least one dose to about 7% of the population.
India’s western Maharashtra state, home to Pune and the financial capital of Mumbai, recorded nearly half of the country’s new infections in the past week. Some vaccination centers in the state have turned people down due to shortages.
At least half a dozen Indian states report similarly low stocks, but Health Minister Harsh Vardhan calls these concerns ‘deplorable attempts by some state governments to divert attention from their failures’.
Nevertheless, India pulled out on Tuesday to expand the number of available vaccines by expanding the use of all coronavirus shots that have received an emergency nod from the World Health Organization or regulators in the United States, Europe, Britain or Japan. Indian regulators have also approved Russian Sputnik V for emergency use.
Concerns about vaccine supplies have led to criticism of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government, which has exported 64.5 million doses to other countries. Rahul Gandhi, the face of Congress’s largest opposition party, asked Modi in a letter whether the government’s export strategy was “an attempt to gain publicity at the expense of our own citizens.” ‘
Now India has reversed its course. Last month, COVAX said shipments of up to 90 million doses of AstraZeneca vaccines were delayed because the Serum Institute in India decided to prioritize domestic needs.
The institute, which is based in Pune and is the largest vaccine manufacturer in the world, told The Associated Press earlier this month that the export of the vaccine could start again by June – if new coronavirus infections decrease. But a continuous boom could lead to more delays.
And experts warn that India can look into it.
They suspect that the rise to more contagious variants, probably a new and potentially troublesome variant, first detected in India itself, is probably the cause of the widespread boom.
India needs to increase vaccination faster and take measures to stop the spread of the virus, said Krishna Udayakumar, founder of the Duke Global Health Innovation Center at Duke University. “The coming months in India are extremely dangerous,” he said.
However, some say that the government’s confused messages could not communicate the risk.
Modi remarked that people should wear masks, but during the last few weeks he has delivered speeches in front of tens of thousands of fans without masks.
The federal government also allowed large gatherings during Hindu festivals such as the Kumbh Mela, where millions of devotees take a sacred dip in the Ganges River daily. Responding to concerns that it could become a ‘superspreader’ event, State Minister Tirath Singh Rawat said ‘faith in God will overcome the fear of the virus.’
“Optics is so important, and we confuse it completely,” says Dr. Shahid Jameel, who studies viruses at Ashoka University in India.
Dozens of cities and towns have imposed partial restrictions and night bells to try to fight infections, but Modi has ruled out the possibility of another nationwide exclusion. He also rejected calls from states to offer vaccinations to younger people.
Experts meanwhile believe that the current restriction on vaccine supply for people over the age of 45 should be relaxed, and that the shots should be targeted in areas with a boom.
“The burden of COVID-19 is felt unequally,” Udayakumar said. “And the response needs to be tailored to local needs.”
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Associated Press journalists Rafiq Maqbool in Mumbai and Maria Cheng in London contributed to this report.
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The Associated Press Health and Science Division receives support from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute’s Department of Science Education. The AP is solely responsible for all content.