India Covid Cases Surge and Health Experts Concerned About Potential New Variant

Photographer: T. Narayan / Bloomberg

As India’s daily count of Covid-19 infections increased by a record of 200,000 plus cases on two consecutive days, public health experts are concerned that a new – possibly more virulent – coronavirus variant could chase through the overcrowded country of more than 1.3 billion people.

The new variant, which has a so-called double mutation, promotes arguably the deadliest new wave of infections in India, making it the world’s second country to be hit the hardest and surpassing Brazil. hospitals in crematoria. The Asian country has so far reported more than 14 million Covid cases and more than 174,300 deaths.

“It’s a variant of interest that we follow,” said Maria Van Kerkhove, the The chief technical officer of the World Health Organization at Covid, told reporters on Friday. “It is worrying to have two of these mutations, which have been seen in other variants around the world,” she said. they.

The new tribe emphasizes the treacherous nature of viruses and threatens to thwart attempts at restraint in India, despite strict measures such as the world’s biggest exclusion last year. An explosive outbreak in India runs the risk of undoing a victory over the pathogen for others as well, especially since this tension has now jumped to at least ten other countries.

This is what we know so far:

How did the “double mutation” variant originate?

The new variant, called B.1.617, was initially detected in India with two mutations – the E484Q and L452R. According to Van Kerkhove, this was first reported by a scientist in India last year and more details were presented to the WHO.

Viruses mutate all the time as part of evolutionary biology. Some mutations weaken the virus, while others can make it stronger so that it can multiply faster or cause more infections.

Why the mutated Coronavirus Variants are so worrying: Quick recording

The Indian Ministry of Health first acknowledged the presence of such adouble mutant ”at the end of March, but has since underestimated it. Although it is a variation of interest, it is ‘not if’Aparna Mukherjee, a scientist from the Indian Council for Medical Research, who works under the Ministry of Health, told Bloomberg TV on Friday.

Is this the biggest increase in infections in India?

Genome sequence indicates the variant as a possible culprit. According to the website tracker outbreak.info, which uses data from the global repository GISAID, the average incidence of the variant has risen to as high as 52% of the samples followed in April.

In some districts of the state of Maharashtra – home to the country’s financial hub Mumbai and the center of the current wave that is currently under lock-in rules – the prevalence of this variant was more than 60%, according to Anurag Agrawal, director of the state-run genomic institute for Scientific and Industrial Research doing sequencing. The B.1.617 was present in samples from about ten Indian states, and although the percentage may vary, it is expected to rise, as ‘it has two critical mutations that make it more likely to transfer immunity and escape,’ Agrawal said. said.

“We did math – we believe that much of the increase in reproduction number can be explained by these mutations,” said Nithya Balasubramanian, head of health care research to Bernstein India, told Bloomberg TV this week. “So, yes, the mutations are a big concern.”

After slowly mapping virus genomes in recent months, India has the order for less than 1% positive samples from last month – the country is now skarrel to cover lost land. “We try to do at least 5% of the samples that are there,” ICMR’s Mukherjee said.

“It seems to be spreading faster than existing variants,” says Rakesh Mishra, director in Hyderabad of the Center for Cellular and Molecular Biology – another Indian laboratory that follows genomic sequences of Covid samples. “Sooner or later it will occur throughout the country, given the way it spreads.”

Was it found outside India?

This variant has been detected in at least ten other countries, including the US, UK, Australia and New Zealand situation report on outbreak.info.

On April 16, 408 series were detected in the B.1.617 lineage, of which 265 were found in India, the report shows. A According to the British government, it has so far found 77 cases in England and Scotland, indicating it as a “Variant Under Investigation”.

New Zealand has the arrival of its citizens and residents from India temporarily suspended due to the increase in the number who returned with Covid. Brazil was also avoided as a Covid superspreader by his neighbors who were nervous about the virus strain next door.

India’s second wave – given its size and rapid pace – will worry other nations that have almost managed their own outbreaks after weeks of economically devastating barriers.

Is it more deadly than other variants out there?

Researchers are still trying to figure it out. The characteristics of the double mutant variant are being investigated, but the L452R mutation is, according to Agrawal, well characterized according to American studies. It increases the transmission of the virus by about 20% and reduces the effectiveness of antibodies by more than 50%.

Globally, three worrying variants that have emerged so far in the United Kingdom, South Africa and Brazil have raised concerns. Studies suggest that they are more contagious, and some evidence suggests that one of them is more deadly while another causes re-infections.

The double mutant strain, first found in India, has started to bother virologists everywhere.