MASLOVKA, Russia – Deep in a pine forest in southern Russia, military trucks, with their silhouettes blurred by camouflage networks, appear through the trees. Soldiers in four-wheel-drive vehicles crawl along relaxed dirt roads. And outside a newly pitched tent camp, guards, Kalashnikovs slung over their shoulders, moving back and forth.
Over the past month or so, Russia has deployed what analysts call the largest military buildup along the border with Ukraine since the start of Kiev’s war with Russian-backed separatists seven years ago.
This is by no means a secret operation: during a New York Times journalist’s trip to southern Russia, there was evidence of the build-up everywhere.
The mobilization is causing alarms in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, European capitals and Washington, and is increasingly seen as an early foreign policy test for the Biden government, which has just hit Moscow with a new round of sanctions. Russia responded almost immediately, announcing Friday that it would expel ten U.S. diplomats.
The US sanctions were intended to punish Russia for numerous actions in the past, including the interference with the US elections, the ‘Solar Winds’ burglary of government agencies and corporations, various attempts to misuse information and the annexation of Crimea.
Ukraine’s Defense Minister Andrii Taran told European lawmakers on Wednesday that Russia is now garnering about 110,000 troops near the border with Ukraine. In Washington, the director of the CIA told Congress that it was unclear whether the build-up was an example of force or preparation for something more ominous.
Although the purpose of the build-up is unclear, military analysts say it was definitely meant to be seen. A show of strength is hardly a good show when no one is watching.
“They deploy in a very visible way,” said Michael Kofman, a senior researcher at CNA, a think tank in Arlington, Va., Who watched the military activity. “They do it openly so we can see it. This is intentional. ”
To leave the movements unseen, the Russian army has in fact issued statements in which some of them have been announced in advance. The high visibility cost Russia a surprise, which led to analysts minimizing the possibility of an actual attack.
They probably say that the build-up is intended as a warning to the West not to take Russia for granted. After four years of reverence for the Trump administration, President Vladimir V. Putin now finds himself in an awkwardly exposed position, Dmitry Trenin of the Carnegie Moscow Center said in a recent essay.
The Kremlin’s relations with Europe are at their lowest decline since the Gorbachev era, soured over evidence of Russian intrigue and interference. “At the same time,” Mr. Trenin wrote, “the coordination between American and European policies on Russia has increased significantly under Biden.”
Mr. Putin, who is very sensitive to any problems, can not help but acknowledge that Russia is still on President Biden’s list of foreign policy priorities.
Mr. Putin could also be provoked by the actions of President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine, who in recent months has moved troops near the border with separatist regions, shut down Russia-friendly TV stations and accused some separatist leaders of treason. .
From this perspective, the mass troops could also put pressure on Ukraine to shift its positions in talks to settle the war more on Russia’s terms.
Up close, the Russian build-up is even harder to miss. Tank tracks cut across a parking lot within the town. Children watch along the road while military trucks roll past with six wheels and kick up clouds of dust. Russian and foreign reporters turn up daily to monitor the buzz of activities.
An interview on a recent, soft spring day when they turned the damp black soil of their garden plots to plant, residents of villages near the Pogonovo training field, a hub of this build-up, seemed happy to play along with the alleged cloak of secrecy.
Yevdokia Novikova, 86, a retired nurse, said the military activity sent a message to the West: “It is pointless to fight with Russia,” she said of the message.
But when her eyes narrowed from suspicion that a foreigner was asking questions about the military vehicles being seen, she also said that the activity was not meant to be seen at all. “Passop!” she said. “If you write the wrong words, you could be hit with a stick.”
But this otherwise inconspicuous rural region on the Russian steppes, about 110 kilometers from the Ukrainian border, unmistakably serves as a center for reconstruction. Commercial satellite images and photos posted on social media showed hundreds of armored vehicles either traveling on the roads or parked in the pine forest.
A train depot in the center of the city serves to transfer rail vehicles from railroad cars to flatbed trucks, according to social media reports confirmed as authentic by the Conflict Intelligence Team, a group of independent Russian military analysts.
Huge military trucks were parked within sight of the roads, which strangely enough were open to public traffic.
One video published online by the Conflict Intelligence Team featured a large, tracked multiple rocket launcher called TOS, nicknamed Pinocchio for its bulging, nose-like weapon. It towed on a flat truck between summer houses in Maslovka.
Flatbed trucks also towed armored personnel carriers called BMPs, the Russian equivalent of Bradley combat vehicles. Artillery, infantry, units for special forces, tanks, missiles and naval landing craft have all been photographed deploying to the Ukrainian border.
Earlier this month, the Russian military issued a news release announcing the redeployment of the naval vessel closer to Ukraine, should anyone be curious. The vessels sail along rivers and canals connecting the Caspian Sea with the Black Sea. The ministry posted photos.
Mr. Biden has indicated he wants to de-escalate. In conciliatory comments Thursday, he said the new sanctions were not the worst the United States could take. “I chose to be proportionate,” he said. “The United States does not want to start a cycle of escalation and conflict with Russia.” He had a summit meeting with Mr. Putin proposed.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry S. Peskov has repeatedly said that Russia is within its rights to garrison soldiers where it wants within its borders. Russian Defense Minister Sergei K. Shoigu said he had ordered a nationwide readiness check by the military in response to aggressive steps taken by NATO.
People living in the Pogonovo training ground mostly expressed support for Russia’s military muscle flexion.
“If they calmed down, so would we,” said Aleksei, a retired Russian air force mechanic who, for fear of the authorities, refused to offer his surname.
But, he added, the Russian army often trained in the area, and the activity of this spring was not uncommon. “There’s no alarm going on here,” he said with a shrug. “Not at all.”
Not all the residents were so friendly. One man walked to the fence of his garden, caked, and asked me, “Why hasn’t the FSB caught you yet?” referring to the Russian domestic intelligence agency.
As we drove away from the town, military police officers stopped our car – demanding that we follow them right to the military training zone, for a conversation with a commander.
The road led past thick, green military trucks parked in the woods, some with communications antennas sprouting from their roofs, and to a city of tents, all disguised with camouflage nets. “Your presence here is not prohibited,” said the commander, Capt. Kirill Smirnov, said. “It is also not recommended.”
The United States and its allies are increasingly concerned about the build-up of Russian troops, CIA Director William J. Burns warned the Senate on Wednesday. The build-up contains enough forces for a possible invasion.
But Mr. Burns said U.S. officials are still trying to determine whether the Kremlin is preparing for military action or simply sending a signal.