Medici takes a patient from an ambulance to the Royal London Hospital in London on 19 January 2021.
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LONDON – A third national exclusion in England appears to have had little impact on rising coronavirus infections, according to the findings of a large study, with ‘no evidence of a decline’ in the incidence of the virus during the first ten days of stricter restrictions.
The careful REACT-1 study, led by Imperial College London, warned that health services would remain under ‘extreme pressure’ and that the cumulative number of deaths would increase rapidly unless the prevalence of the virus in the community was significantly reduced.
The findings of the preprint report, published Thursday by Imperial College London and Ipsos MORI, come shortly after the United Kingdom recorded another overall coronavirus death.
Government figures released on Wednesday showed that an additional 1,820 people died within 28 days after a positive Covid test. To date, the UK has recorded 3.5 million cases of coronavirus, with 93,299 deaths.
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson speaks at a press conference on coronavirus (COVID-19) in Downing Street on 15 January 2021 in London, England.
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Prime Minister Boris Johnson said the latest figures were “appalling” and warned: “There are still difficult weeks to come.”
Johnson introduced lock-in measures in England on January 5 and instructed people to ‘stay home’, as most schools, pubs and restaurants were ordered to close. The strict public health measures are expected to apply until at least mid-February.
What were the main findings?
The REACT-1 study tests nasal and throat swabs of between 120,000 and 180,000 people in the community in England at approximately monthly intervals. The latest results mostly covered a period from January 6 to January 15.
The study compared the results with swabs collected between November 13 and November 24 and those taken between November 25 and December 3.
Researchers found 1,962 positive results from 142,909 swabs taken during the January period. That means 1.58% of the people tested have Covid on a weighted average.
This represents an increase of more than 50% in the incidence of results since the results of mid-December and is the highest recorded by REACT-1 since it started in May 2020.
The incidence from 6 January to 15 January was the highest in London, according to the study, with 1 in 36 people infected more than double the rate of previous REACT-1 results.
A man wearing a mask as a preventative measure against the spread of Covid-19 is walking in London.
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Infections have also more than doubled in the south east of England, east of England and the West Midlands compared to the findings published in early December.
“Our data shows worrying suggestions of a recent increase in infections that we will closely monitor,” Professor Paul Elliott, director of the program at Imperial, said in a statement.
“We all have a role to play in preventing this situation from deteriorating and we must do our best to stay home where possible,” he added.
The UK Department of Health and Social Care said the full impact of closure measures would not yet be reflected in the prevalence figures reported in the REACT-1 study.
“These findings show why we should not wait until next week,” said Matt Hancock, secretary of health.
“It’s extremely important that everyone contributes to reducing infections. That means staying home and only going out where necessary, reducing contact with others and keeping social distance,” Hancock said.