California is expanding vaccine suitability for anyone 16 years and older on April 15, and while this next step in the state’s vaccine deployment is exciting, it will be hampered by a limited, even shrinking supply of shots.
With a huge increase in demand for appointments expected later this week, public health officials are advising residents to be patient, as there will not be enough vaccine appointments for everyone who is newly eligible.
If you are struggling to be patient while searching for an appointment and can not find one, here is an overview of the demand and supply numbers in California that can help you better understand the situation.
According to the state, there are approximately 18.7 million people aged 16 to 49 living in California. It is the largest age group eligible for the vaccine, with 6.5 million Californians aged 65 and older and 7.2 million Californians aged 50 to 64 years.
Although some of the people in the youngest age group have probably already been vaccinated because they are health workers or have fallen into another category that they considered earlier, there will still be millions and millions of individuals who can be vaccinated for the first time. Thursday.
This week (April 11) the state expects to receive 15% fewer vaccines from the federal government, and 5% less than next week (April 18), mainly due to an accident in manufacturing that caused 15 million doses of the one shot destroyed. Johnson & Johnson vaccine late last month.
Last week, the state received 2.4 million doses from the federal government, of which 1.5 million doses were allocated for first shots (Pfizer or Moderna) or the one-dose J&J shot. This week, the projection for the state award is 2 million doses, of which 1 million will receive the vaccine for the first time. Next week, the state expects to receive 1.9 million doses, and only 956,000 doses will be available to people who want their first chance.
“To put this in perspective, the supply forecasts for this week and next week are about what the state received in the second half of March,” said Darrel Ng, a spokesman for the state’s COVID-19 vaccination task force. wrote an email.
It is also important to remember that multiple vaccines are entering the state, Ng said. The above numbers do not include doses that the federal government distributes directly to pharmacies and other agencies, which make up approximately 30% of the available doses in California.
While the vaccine supply may sound discouraging, and it may take days, weeks or even a month or two before eligible residents can make an appointment, it is likely that most people will by the end of May.
President Joe Biden assured the American public in a press conference last Tuesday that “by the end of May, the vast majority of adult Americans will have received at least their first shot.”
The White House COVID-19 Response Team said on Friday that both Pfizer and Moderna are on track to meet their commitment to deliver a total of 200 million doses by the end of May. Officials said Friday that Johnson and Johnson had promised nearly 100 million doses of vaccinations by the end of May. It is unknown at this time what he will do after leaving the post. The US recommends a “pause” with the administration of the single-dose Johnson & Johnson COVID-19 vaccine “out of a caution” to investigate reports of rare and potentially dangerous blood clots.
While Ng said he could not give an official projection until May 31 on the total award of the vaccine, he offered math.
“CA is 12% of the country’s population,” Ng wrote in an email. “With 200M Pfizer + 200M Moderna + 100M J&J doses by the end of May, CA should have enough stock to vaccinate 36 million people fully (assuming a proportional allocation). There are 32.6 million people 16+ in the state. “
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