This is the projection of the University of Liverpool, in England, according to epidemiologist Alfonso Rosales. Passed from 278 to 600 new contacts on the day
Agreed with the projection of epidemiologist experts from the University of Liverpool, in England, for El Salvador hopes a panoramic view for the first months of 2021.
Alfonso Rosales, doctor and consultant in epidemiology, cites that several studies of this entity “project a duplication of cases in El Salvador, which we will see in 135 days. In four months and mid (April), we will be duplicating the number of current cases we hold (276 on December 29). The pressure that will be exerted on the Salud system will be much greater than the one we will be experimenting with in the front ”which will take over the country, between the months of June and July.
Rosales, who participated as invited on Canal 33 on the eve of this week alongside the infectious pathologist Iván Solano Leiva, explained that at the level of Central America, El Salvador is at 2% acceleration of new contagios of Sars-Cov-2 per week , while other countries in the area are in the region of case deceleration: Guatemala with -18%, Honduras -21% and Costa Rica -7%. Very serious about what happens in Panama, which suffers from a 36% acceleration, says Rosales.
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The specialist considers that this case in El Salvador “is related to the behavior of the population in this era, the protection media is related, there is a reduced agglomeration of people”.
Solano Leiva coincides with the fact that “in El Salvador we find an account of cases, lie that in July was the most important case that we found, the peak of this first COVID bread in our country. From three weeks to four weeks, we have seen that these leagues, according to official data, are subject to a high number of 250 cases ”.
Although he insists that Gobierno’s figures are not reliable, he noted that these numbers include an alza. Alertó Solano Leiva said that “we are looking at the public system that will start noticing a percentage of UCI cameras and hospitalizations by COVID-19”, and lamented that until now we will have an initiative of 2021 with a majority of cases, with the risk that the Salud system will be newly collapsed, as happened in the fatal months of June and July ”.
The hospital capacity of the country is expanding the maximum of its capacity for the attention of patients COVID-19, verslur Solano Leiva, and details that at the Hospital El Salvador in Cifco, “have made days, we inform that the capacity of use of the UCI cameras is located at 92% occupancy. In 80% the UCIN of intermediates, in 25 and 30% the cameras of generals ”.
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In view of the situation in other assistance centers, Solano Leiva assures that the Medical Surgeon (ISSS) has around 50 to 60 beds for COVID patients, and in the last few weeks one of these services is available here. And the UCI of the General Hospital is waiting for COVID patients, just like the Amatepec of the Social Security, and every day it is increasing its capacity ”to occupy patients confirmed with the new Coronavirus.
Various private hospitals have ten months of not receiving patients COVID-19, and agreement with Solano Leiva, in this sector “the only hospital that is receiving is the Escalón Medical Center, which has a capacity for 15 beds, which has an even (of March ) estaban llenas, algo que no habíamos visto las las ultimas semanas ”.
Ambos medical lamentaron that the maneuver of the pandemic has been politicized in the country, to give a technical and scientific approach. In this regard, Solano Leiva criticizes that “the Ministry of Health believes that it does not use the necessary remedies to take the relevant medicines to help reduce the contagion of COVID-19 in our country”, and noted that the Code of Health allows apply economic or civil sanctions.
In the case of the representative of the Medical College of El Salvador, “the Code of Health, in its Article 131 establishes what happens when there are epidemics in the country, which can be tolerated. Unfortunately, we have listened to the Minister (Salud, Francisco Alabí) and many officials say that there are maneuvers, which can not establish any type of economic or civil sanctions, or to denounce those persons who live in a cabo noid se guarden las medidas de contravención ”.
In order for the double-case projection in April to be completed, both doctors will help the public to take care of the emergency prevention services, and the government will have a better communication campaign about the risks of the COVID-19 crisis. .