“Who is it that is going to take the chance to go on tour again?”
The question, voiced by a prominent music discussion agent in the US, involves the sentiment of faltering uncertainty in the music industry. When President Joe Biden said this week that by the end of May, America will have enough Covid-19 vaccines for every adult, it indicated that the end of the pandemic could finally be in sight, and for big players like concert and ticket giant Live Nation Entertainment – Michael Rapino, chief executive, at a revenue call at outdoor amphitheater shows last week, said the news quickly began with talks about a quick return to full-scale indoor and outdoor shows.
“All indications are that 2021 will return to the summer concert season that we all know and that we all love,” said Bob Ruox, Live Nation’s president of American concerts. Rolling clip in a statement Thursday. “Since vaccines are available to everyone in May, we are confident that events will be able to return to normal shortly thereafter.” Live Nation says 83% of fans chose to hold tickets rather than ask for a refund, reflecting the huge demand from fans for returning shows. Last week, following the UK’s announcement that it would be able to come there again in June, Live Nation sold 170,000 tickets for its festivals in Reading and Leeds and Creamfield within three days.
But despite the enthusiasm of giants for concert promotions, big performances in the summer of 2021 are still not a lock.
For most other players involved in discussing and coordinating performances in the live music industry, which has been fighting a global annual concert strike, massive loss of revenue and increasing debt since March 2020, Biden’s words do not change their plans significantly. This is because live music, with its indoor high density and complicated group logistics, cannot be profitable unless the whole system is running at the same time. Many insiders of music say that a full-scale return to concerts and tours is only feasible in the fall or even early 2022.
‘You get one opportunity that’s a super-distributor, and it can still happen. You want to be far away. ‘
‘You get one opportunity that’s a super-distributor, and it can still happen – you want to be far from it. I’m still thinking on a national tour level, no, wait until next year, ‘says the agent, who has worked with several major artists and asked for anonymity due to the financially sensitive nature of the discussion. Rolling clip.
Live Nation and its rival AEG said they were both unwilling to resume indoor concerts unless they could work close to full capacity. And despite the news about a vaccination timeline by May, Taylor Swift continued to cancel her postponed tour, citing uncertainty: “A lot of you were hanging on to your tickets and I was also hanging on to the idea that we could reschedule,” Swift said in a tweet. “This is an unprecedented pandemic that has changed everyone’s plans and no one knows what the tourism environment will look like in the near future.”
According to sources, even the biggest artists are unlikely to embark on national or global tours until they can guarantee that it is safe to perform from most markets that they will play in a regular tour festival, meaning the US is not just vaccines available but widely applied. ‘There will be one-off bookings, last-minute bookings, there will be some limited capacity programs, there will be things we discuss in the fall, and small events in the summer. It will all be regional, ”says the agent. “I am currently confirming the dates for fall and summer.”
Another high-ranking director says Biden’s vaccination timeline “increases the optimism that there could be shows, and it feels like there’s a way.” But because the summer and fall performances are not guaranteed, the executive is keeping backup plans for its roster for 2022 – and is wary of announcing early 2021 tours.
“I am optimistic that if the effects of the vaccine continue according to this new timetable, we will be able to perform in the amphitheaters at least by August, September, October,” the executive said. ‘But the variable in it all is what happens to these variants. And that’s the biggest concern for everyone. ”
“To really get the business back on track, we need to be able to have full-capacity shows across the country.”
The executive adds: ‘You can not do Swiss cheese routes. If it has holes in it because certain states have not opened, it is usually not going to work. Now, some artists who tour more weekend and weekend base – which is actually more like the land industry works – can actually play some of their weekends. And an artist who can sell 4,000 or 5,000 tickets can go to an amphitheater of 20,000 capacities and do a socially distant performance and it might be good. There are a few things that can happen without having a full green light for full capacity shows, but to really get the business back on track, we really need to have the ability to run shows across the country across the country. have.
Rob Light, head of music at the CAA booking agency, told the music industry in an interview at Clubhouse in February that he was confident of a wider return for the late summer or fall of 2021, adding that he expected the industry will have a clear timeline by April. He added that he expects shorter lead times on ticket sales, which go back to older decades in the live industry, before tickets were sold months in advance.
It also looks like the American festival circle is moving towards autumn. Las Vegas’ Life Is Beautiful recently announced mid-September dates, and Milwaukee’s Summerfest, one of the largest music festivals in the world, said it will take place during the first three weekends of September. (However, Coachella moved its spring 2020 dates to fall, then to the spring of 2021, and then also scrapped the plans; it has yet to announce new 2021. dates.)
Yet health experts say that guessing at a reopening timeline is now no easier than it was a year ago – especially with newer variants of the virus floating around.
‘If the variants do not spread widely, we can cope. But the second condition is what percentage of the population will eventually be vaccinated, ”says Dr Michael Osterholm, an epidemiologist and director of the Center for Infectious Diseases Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota. “If we see that up to a third of the population refuses to be vaccinated, it could still cause enough individuals to become infected and transmit the virus to continuously prevent cases that would happen with regularity across the country.”
Osterholm hesitates to say that any form of live music can be safe on a large scale, as researchers are still studying the efficacy of the vaccines from the new variants.
“There may be a situation where the variant may bypass your immune protection,” he points out, adding that he “would not recommend [any live events] until we better understand what it means. ”
Live music leaders are especially stimulated by planning tours in the US, where many different rules apply to different states. While the federal government issued a set of security guidelines, states such as Texas and Mississippi decided to reopen and remove their mask mandates. Some individual cities can also be very lax about events than others, making it difficult to know when certain markets will open for tours. (The reopening of scattershot contrasts with plans in the UK, where the government sets out thresholds and timelines that are “very useful” for unlocking a “major burst of consumer demand”, says Joe Berchtold, president of Live Nation.
‘Texas has allowed a lot of club performances, and a lot of country artists down there have done performances. It existed and was just part of doing business in Texas, ” they say. “But these are kind of one-off things and it doesn’t really help a big national tour.”
In New York, Governor Andrew Cuomo said music venues could start at 33 percent again on April 2, but with a maximum amount of 100 people indoors, making it financially meaningless for many venues to even try. ‘For most independent GA music venues, 100 percent are probably where you need to be [to profit], ”Venue owners tell Rolling clip last week.
Zach Ernst, a talent buyer at Antone’s Nightclub in Austin, Texas, says he feels hopeful about the decline in cases and increased vaccine rates. But even though Texas is opening up, he does not anticipate that he will immediately jump back into the series.
‘I think we are all hopeful that this type of vaccine news will positively impact all sectors. And it is really hopeful to look forward to a few months from now, ‘says Ernst. ‘It’s annoying because you have to offer programs for sale between a few weeks [beforehand], a month, six weeks or longer – usually much longer. We’ve all had the carpet pulled out from under us so many times and moved so many times, and all this, that we are all a little numb. ‘